UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE // INFO-SA ONLY // UNVERIFIED CLAIMS
CLAIM MAPIran–USA / Strait of Hormuz · 2026

UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED — FOR INFORMATION & SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ONLY — NOT FOR TARGETING OR OPERATIONAL USE

WEEKLY SITREP · IRAN–USA · UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED — INFO/SA ONLY

Weekly Situation Report — Iran–USA / Strait of Hormuz

DTG021846Z OCT 2026
Period covered2026-09-26 00:00Z – 2026-10-02 23:59Z (7 UTC days)
Data cutoff2026-10-02 17:50Z (latest claim record in window)
OriginatorIran–USA / Strait of Hormuz Claim Map — automated open-source claim aggregation (not an official body)
Basis209 claim records · 137 source links · machine-readable: report.json

UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED — INFO/SA ONLY. Every number below is a claim by the named party. Totals are “CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED”.

1. Situation overview (BLUF)

  • 209 open-source claim records were logged on this map between 26 Sep and 02 Oct 2026 (UTC), citing 137 distinct source links. All are UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED. Map side tags: Iran 78, Other 63, USA 54, Unknown 14.
  • Most-reported locations: Strait of Hormuz (EST) (10); Hormuz corridor Contested (EST) (6); Strait of Hormuz contested control frame (EST) (5); Strait of Hormuz bargaining / transit frame (EST) (3); UN / Hormuz diplomacy track (EST) (3).
  • United States / partners side: 8 — personnel wounded, claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).
  • Iran / IRGC side: 1 — strike / attack events reported (deduped), claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).
  • Other / commercial shipping & third parties side: 7 — ships / vessels, claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (10 claim records).
  • Territorial gain/advance claims this week — Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers): 2. No assessed change in the map’s EST territory layer.
  • Units layer: 21 new unit/actor entries and 15 EST position updates (≥5 km) — all NOT CONFIRMED / ESTIMATED.
  • 14 figure-claim(s) could not be assigned to the side that suffered the loss and are listed under “Side unclear” in Section 2.

2. Weekly totals by side

Losses are grouped by the side that SUFFERED them (target / victim parsed from the claim text and the claimant — not the map’s side tag); “Side unclear” holds figures whose victim could not be determined. Each figure is the sum of this week’s per-event claims, credited to the party making the claim. Repeat reports of one event are counted once; where reports conflict a low–high range is shown. Rolling official tallies are in Section 3 and are not included here. Different claimants are never added together. All totals: CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED.

Losses suffered by: United States / partners

Civilian casualties — Civilians (US / partner states): no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.

CategoryMetricCLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIEDClaimed byBuilt from
PersonnelPersonnel wounded8
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-09-28 · Strait of Hormuz (EST) · 8 — src “ABC News Sep 28 (~12:17pm EDT update): a US official confirmed to ABC that eight Marines were recently hurt in an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Horm”

Losses suffered by: Iran / IRGC

Civilian casualties — Civilians in Iran: no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.

CategoryMetricCLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIEDClaimed byBuilt from
Equipment / infrastructureCivilian buildings (incidents)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-02 · Iran / Strait of Hormuz theater (assessment) · 1 — src “English-language regime media circulated senior IRGC Aerospace Force officer comments that Iran can hit moving targets with long-range ballistic missiles (asses”
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials1 claim · 1 event
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area

Losses suffered by: Other / commercial shipping & third parties

Civilian casualties — Civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries): no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.

CategoryMetricCLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIEDClaimed byBuilt from
Equipment / infrastructureDrones / UAVs1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-09-27 · Strait of Hormuz (EST seizure area) · 1 — src “Iran International / CNBC / Al Jazeera Sep 27: IRGC Navy said Sunday it seized an advanced US military underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz, identified as”
Equipment / infrastructureShips / vessels7
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)10 claims · 7 events
7 event(s)
  • 2026-09-29 · Strait of Hormuz transit (EST — exact fix not published) · 1 — src “Anadolu Agency / Iran International Sep 29: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel was struck by a suspected unknown projectile while transiting the Strait ”
  • 2026-09-30 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — exact fixes not published) · 1 — src “Warning 144-26 crude oil tanker struck port side”; src “145-26 inbound tanker struck”; src “146-26 LNG tanker struck”
  • 2026-09-30 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — Sep 29 time-late UKMTO 144-26) · 1 — src “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 144-26 time-late Sep 29 crude oil tanker struck on port side by unknown projectile identified as 2008-bu”; src “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 145-26 time-late Sep 29 inbound tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Liberian-flagged tanke”; src “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 146-26 time-late Sep 29 tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Al Ruwais”
  • 2026-10-01 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — AIS-dark Liberian trio) · 1 — src “Reuters (via Baird Maritime) Oct 1: shipping intelligence service Marisks said three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while trans”
  • 2026-10-01 · Southern Hormuz corridor / Omani-side route (EST) · 1 — src “~2/3 oil volume via STS. Same piece: UKMTO time-late three tanker hits (one unconfirmed LNG)”
  • 2026-10-01 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — unnamed tanker) · 1 — src “Anadolu Agency / Arab Times Oct 1: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thurs”
  • 2026-10-02 · Strait of Hormuz (EST) · 1 — src “gCaptain Oct 1 (Mike Schuler): UKMTO Warning 147-26 reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile at about 1750 UTC Oct 1, fire onboard, crew safe”
Equipment / infrastructureShips / vessels20
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)2 claims · 2 events
2 event(s)
  • 2026-09-28 · Hormuz / NY mediation / Iran (EST) · 19 — src “CTP: IRGC claimed 19 vessel attacks Sep 26–27 with no substantiating evidence observed”
  • 2026-09-29 · Strait of Hormuz / blockade line (EST analysis) · 1 — src “Notes likely Iranian projectile struck a vessel Sep 28 (fire)”
Equipment / infrastructureShips / vessels1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-09-28 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — vessel type undisclosed) · 1 — src “amplified Sep 28 by Iran International/AA): three US officials said eight US Marines (7 enlisted + 1 officer) were injured Sep 14 when an Iranian anti-ship crui”
Equipment / infrastructureShips / vessels3
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-01 · Strait of Hormuz / UNGA diplomacy track (EST) · 3 — src “Wednesday observers reported IRGC may have fired on three tankers”
Equipment / infrastructureCivilian buildings (incidents)3
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources3 claims · 3 events
3 event(s)
  • 2026-09-30 · Strait of Hormuz (EST) · 1 — src ““We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond.” Same piece: tanker-trackers put oil/petroleum”
  • 2026-09-30 · Strait of Hormuz / coastal approaches (EST) · 1 — src “called for non-attributable maritime interdictions, deployment of coastal anti-ship batteries and expanded targeting of Western-escorted vessels so energy marke”
  • 2026-10-02 · Iran / long-range ballistic missile force (EST) · 1 — src “English-language regime media circulated comments from a senior IRGC Aerospace Force officer that Iran has developed the ability to hit moving targets with long”
Equipment / infrastructureCivilian buildings (incidents)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US government (White House / State / Treasury)1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-09-26 · Strait of Hormuz bargaining frame (EST) · 1 — src “Al Jazeera Sep 26: Trump told reporters outside the White House “I reject their proposal,” adding Iran wants an agreement because they’re “losing so badly.” AJ ”
Equipment / infrastructureCivilian buildings (incidents)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-09-28 · Strait of Hormuz (EST — vessel type undisclosed) · 1 — src “amplified Sep 28 by Iran International/AA): three US officials said eight US Marines (7 enlisted + 1 officer) were injured Sep 14 when an Iranian anti-ship crui”
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)6
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)10 claims · 6 events
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)7
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources9 claims · 7 events
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials2 claims · 1 event
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
TerritoryTerritory lost — settlement / position claims1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)1 claim · 1 event
number of claim records in which this claimant says ground was taken from this side
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-01 · Strait of Hormuz / PGSA non-compliance list (EST) · 1 — src “Lloyd’s List Intelligence Strait of Hormuz Brief Sep 30: PGSA “blacklist” grew from 77 to 81 vessels (two crude tankers, an LPG carrier and a bulk carrier added”

Losses suffered by: Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable)

Civilian casualties — Civilians — side unclear: no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.

CategoryMetricCLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIEDClaimed byBuilt from
Equipment / infrastructureArmor (tanks, AFVs, APCs)3
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-01 · Southern Hormuz corridor / Omani-side route (EST) · 3 — src “~2/3 oil volume via STS. Same piece: UKMTO time-late three tanker hits (one unconfirmed LNG)”
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)5
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources5 claims · 5 events
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)4
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials4 claims · 4 events
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by US government (White House / State / Treasury)1 claim · 1 event
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstStrike / attack events reported (deduped)1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media)1 claim · 1 event
count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area
Strikes launched againstLaunched against: Ground attacks / engagements4
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)1 claim · 1 event
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-02 · Strait of Hormuz (EST) · 4 — src “Before that warning, JMIC Update 101 (earlier Thursday) counted four confirmed attacks/disruptions in the Strait over the previous 96 hours and kept the regiona”
TerritoryTerritory lost — settlement / position claims1
CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED
claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)1 claim · 1 event
number of claim records in which this claimant says ground was taken from this side
1 event(s)
  • 2026-10-02 · Strait of Hormuz (EST) · 1 — src “gCaptain Oct 1 (Mike Schuler): UKMTO Warning 147-26 reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile at about 1750 UTC Oct 1, fire onboard, crew safe; no party”

3. Rolling official tallies (kept separate)

Daily or “past 24 h” loss figures published by an official body. These are summed by day only (one figure per day per claimant; duplicates of the same day collapse to a range) and are never mixed with the per-event sums in Section 2.

No rolling daily official tallies were found in this week’s records.

4. Ground situation / territory

EST territory layer: 8 feature(s); generatedAt 2026-10-02T17:50:00Z; 8 feature(s) re-reported this week. Compared against 26 deployment snapshot(s) of this site (baseline 2026-09-26T13:50:00Z).

Assessed change: none. No EST territory feature changed side or geometry this week.

Territorial gain / advance claims (2)

  • 2026-10-01 claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · gainer Iran / IRGC → loser Other / commercial shipping & third parties · Strait of Hormuz / PGSA non-compliance list (EST) — Lloyd’s List Intelligence Strait of Hormuz Brief Sep 30: PGSA “blacklist” grew from 77 to 81 vessels (two crude tankers, an LPG carrier and a bulk carrier added). Iran first unveiled the list Aug 24 with 44 vessels, warning of fines/detention/confiscation; listed vessels continue to transit, suggest Lloyd’s List Intelligence
  • 2026-10-02 claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · gainer Other / commercial shipping & third parties → loser Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable) · Strait of Hormuz (EST) — gCaptain Oct 1 (Mike Schuler): UKMTO Warning 147-26 reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile at about 1750 UTC Oct 1, fire onboard, crew safe; no party identified as responsible. Before that warning, JMIC Update 101 (earlier Thursday) counted four confirmed attacks/disruptions in the Strait gCaptain citing UKMTO / JMIC

5. Strikes & engagements log (by day / area)

All strike, combat, air-defence and naval claim records in the window, grouped by UTC day and location. Unverified.

2026-09-27 — 9 strike / combat claim(s) in 9 area(s)

Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz / Gulf of Oman surveillance claim (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 07:02Z Iran naval official_statement — PressTV Sep 27 (~7:02 AM update) from Bandar Abbas: Mohammadi said vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman are under IRGC Navy surveillance and that claims about oil-tanker passage through the strait “do not correspond to reality.” Repeated the challenge: if the US claims to control Hormuz, “let it bring one of its warships into the area.” Corroborates MEE/Fars Indian Ocean strike-threat line; PressTV / Fars (IRGC Navy)

Strait of Hormuz (EST seizure area) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 16:00Z Iran naval official_statement — Iran International / CNBC / Al Jazeera Sep 27: IRGC Navy said Sunday it seized an advanced US military underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz, identified as a REMUS 600 autonomous underwater vehicle, with specialists working to recover data. IRGC/Tasnim also declared Hormuz closed to unauthorized traffic and said it is acting against dangerous movements / unauthorized routes. Al Jazeera frames this as a second US Iran International / IRGC–Tasnim

Strait of Hormuz / US UUV ops theme (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 16:05Z USA naval news_report — CNBC Sep 27: After IRGC Navy claimed capture of a US Remus 600 UUV in Hormuz, “U.S. Central Command did not immediately respond to CNBC’s emailed request for comment.” Leaves Iranian seizure claim without a same-day US confirmation or denial in that report — parallel to earlier Sep Dive-LD malfunction-vs-seizure dispute pattern. CNBC

Strait of Hormuz — outside Tehran-designated route (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 16:30Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Anadolu Agency Sep 27 citing Fars News Agency / military sources: Iranian forces intercepted 19 ships that attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz outside a route designated by Tehran over the past two days. Agency gave no vessel identities, flags, cargoes, destinations, or whether ships were detained / what measures followed. Claim frames ongoing Iranian enforcement of an authorized-route regime amid diplomac Anadolu Agency / Fars News Agency

Strait of Hormuz designated transit lanes (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 17:17Z Iran engagement official_statement — Tehran Times Sep 27 (~20:47 local): Iranian naval forces fired warning shots at several foreign vessels attempting unauthorized Hormuz passages. Citing Fars: intercepted and engaged seven non-compliant vessels overnight after ignored radio warnings; follows previous-night engagement of 12 others. Vessel identities/flags not disclosed. Tehran Times / Fars News Agency

Strait of Hormuz — unauthorized routes (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 18:14Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Iran International Sep 27 (~13:14 GMT+1): Fars (IRGC-linked) reported Iranian armed forces targeted 19 “violator” vessels in Hormuz on Friday and Saturday — 7 Saturday evening after 12 Friday evening. Agency also cited local reports that several Iranian cruise missiles and attack drones had been launched toward commercial vessels south of the strait in recent hours. US had yet to respond to the targeting assertion in Iran International / Fars News Agency

Near Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 18:30Z Iran strike not_verified — Al Jazeera economy Sep 27: Hours after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopen pitch, explosions were heard in the waterway per Iranian media. Reports of blasts near southern Iran’s Qeshm Island suggested multiple antiship missiles and drones were fired at vessels transiting against Tehran’s wishes. Article notes Iranian authorities did not confirm any attacks in the strait that day. Also notes IRGC Sunday video of claim Al Jazeera

Strait of Hormuz / REMUS 600 claim area (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 18:59Z USA naval official_statement — Middle East Eye Sep 27 (~15:59 BST) citing Al Jazeera: CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins rejected IRGC Navy claim of seizing a US Remus 600 underwater drone in Hormuz, saying the US maintains “positive control of all of our operational drone assets” and describing the IRGC claim as “clearly desperate.” Updates midday CNBC note that CENTCOM had no immediate comment. Middle East Eye / Al Jazeera / CENTCOM

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-27 19:01Z USA naval official_statement — Euronews Persian Sep 27 (updated ~17:43 GMT+2): Corroborates CENTCOM denial to Al Jazeera of IRGC Remus 600 seizure claim — Hawkins: positive control of all operational drone assets. Also restates IRGC claim Hormuz “closed” and Hatami “war is not over” / consolidate victory themes already logged midday. Euronews / CENTCOM via Al Jazeera
2026-09-28 — 6 strike / combat claim(s) in 6 area(s)

Strait of Hormuz (EST — vessel type undisclosed) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 13:50Z USA engagement news_report — NBC News Sep 27 evening (Courtney Kube; amplified Sep 28 by Iran International/AA): three US officials said eight US Marines (7 enlisted + 1 officer) were injured Sep 14 when an Iranian anti-ship cruise missile struck a maritime vessel they were operating on in the Strait of Hormuz. Injuries: smoke inhalation and possible TBI/concussion symptoms (headaches); none seriously injured; all returned to duty soon after. Of NBC News (Courtney Kube) / three US officials

Strait of Hormuz (EST — control dispute) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 17:40Z USA naval official_statement — ABC News Sep 28 (~8:04am EDT) + Iran International/Siasat: CENTCOM posted Monday rejecting an IRGC commander claim that Iran has “full control over the Strait of Hormuz” through its navy. CENTCOM: claim is “FALSE”; “Iran has no navy because American forces sank it”; free passage of thousands of ships and >1 billion barrels of oil “just over the past few months” shows Iran does not control the strait. Pair with Sayyar ABC News citing CENTCOM X / Iran International / Siasat

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 17:52Z USA engagement corroborated — ABC News Sep 28 (~12:17pm EDT update): a US official confirmed to ABC that eight Marines were recently hurt in an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz; injuries “not significant.” Notes UKMTO tracked a commercial vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” Sep 14 with no injuries reported at the time; NBC first reported previously undisclosed Marine injuries; CENTCOM declined comment. Corroborates morning NB ABC News (Luis Martinez) / US official

Iran coast / Hormuz southern corridor / Gulf of Oman (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 18:00Z USA blockade analysis — UANI Iran Shipping Update Sep 28: As of Sep 25, US forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels attempting the Iran-port blockade, disabled three, boarded two. Since blockade restart, UANI tracks no Iranian crude-laden tanker successfully departing Gulf of Oman past US enforcement (handymax LPG/naphtha exceptions noted). ≥55 Iranian oil-laden tankers clustered along Iranian coastline; three AIS-off tankers moored Ba UANI (Brown / Shelley)

Chabahar / Gulf of Oman entrance → central Arabian Sea (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 20:10Z Iran naval news_report — Al Jazeera Sep 28 (Maziar Motamedi, Tehran): Iran is claiming success attacking ships — including US Navy vessels — near Hormuz, saying strikes forced Washington to move warships further from the Iranian coast. State-linked media claimed US warships pulled back earlier this month from positions closer to Chabahar and the Gulf of Oman entrance further into the central Arabian Sea to avoid Iranian missiles. Ties to Mon Al Jazeera (Maziar Motamedi) citing Iranian state-linked media

Arabian Sea (EST CSG operating area) (1)

  • 2026-09-28 23:45Z USA naval official_statement — Moneycontrol Sep 29: CENTCOM posted video of USS George Washington (CVN-73) conducting flight operations while sailing in the Arabian Sea, timed in reporting against Mojtaba Khamenei’s Monday warning that the US should not dare approach Hormuz and that the Arabian Sea would soon be cleared of “enemy” forces. Moneycontrol notes it could not verify whether the footage was contemporaneous or an older clip. Complements p Moneycontrol / CENTCOM (via X)
2026-09-29 — 4 strike / combat claim(s) in 4 area(s)

Strait of Hormuz transit (EST — exact fix not published) (1)

  • 2026-09-29 10:44Z Unknown civilian_vessel official_statement — Anadolu Agency / Iran International Sep 29: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel was struck by a suspected unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening; fire extinguished, vessel underway, crew safe; no reported environmental impact; identity/flag/attacker NOT published. EST merchant-casualty report — attribution unverified. UKMTO via Anadolu Agency / Iran International

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-29 12:35Z Iran blockade official_statement — Al Jazeera Sep 29: Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari insisted that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and said Iranian forces were ready to prevent enemy forces from entering the country. Contrasts with CENTCOM/US facilitation claims and Kpler partial clearances. EST Iranian official maritime-control claim — exclusive hold NOT CONFIRMED. Al Jazeera citing Sayyari

Strait of Hormuz (EST — blockade leverage claim) (1)

  • 2026-09-29 16:30Z Iran blockade official_statement — Reuters Sep 29 (Dubai): IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi challenged US assertions that Iran has lost most leverage over Hormuz, saying US-escorted night/AIS-off transit of “a small vessel” with “100 or 200 barrels” does not mean the strait is open. Same briefing framed Tehran’s Gulf blockade as still effective. EST rhetoric — contradicted by Cooper/Kpler partial-flow reporting; NOT CONFIRMED exclusive Iranian contro Reuters (Yahoo syndication) / ThePrint ReutersFeed

Southern Strait of Hormuz route (EST — Omani-side corridor theme) (1)

  • 2026-09-29 17:29Z Iran strike not_verified — Iran International Sep 29 (~18:29 GMT+1): IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported Tuesday, citing local sources, that a vessel on the southern Hormuz route was targeted in a drone attack and described the ship as a “violator.” US and Arab neighbors had not reported the attack at time of writing. May relate to — or be distinct from — Monday-evening UKMTO projectile/fire report. EST Iranian outlet claim — NOT CONFIRM Iran International citing Fars News Agency
2026-09-30 — 9 strike / combat claim(s) in 7 area(s)

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (3)

  • 2026-09-30 09:07Z Iran naval official_statement — Iran International Sep 30 (~10:07 GMT+1): IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said military confrontations occur in Hormuz every 24 hours and the IRGC targets ships, but the United States has not responded for some time. He said SNSC decisions require Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approval. EST — Iranian official interdiction claim; not independently verified hit rates. Iran International / IRGC Mohebi
  • 2026-09-30 11:30Z Iran blockade official_statement — bne IntelliNews Sep 30: Mohebbi on state television reiterated closed-strait metrics — when open, ≥125 ships/day; “now no more than 7 or 8 ships pass through daily… ships that are allowed to pass by Iran.” Also: US “not in the same position”; enemy familiar with Iranian capabilities. EST — Iranian traffic-count claim contradicting ~80% flow trackers. bne IntelliNews / IRGC Mohebbi state TV
  • 2026-09-30 12:30Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Al Jazeera Sep 30: Mohebbi told Fars there is ongoing “military conflict” in Hormuz — “We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond.” Same piece: tanker-trackers put oil/petroleum flows through Hormuz near ~80% of pre-war; Kpler Sep ME crude ~16.328 mbd / Hormuz ~9.719 mbd. EST — Iranian interdiction claim vs recovering-flow trackers. Al Jazeera / Fars (Mohebbi) / Kpler cite

Strait of Hormuz (EST — exact fixes not published) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 12:00Z Unknown civilian_vessel official_statement — bne IntelliNews / Ship & Bunker Sep 30: UK Maritime Trade Operations issued three time-late warnings for Sep 29 Hormuz incidents — Warning 144-26 crude oil tanker struck port side; 145-26 inbound tanker struck; 146-26 LNG tanker struck; each from a verified source; no casualties/damage/flags/names published; attacker NOT attributed by UKMTO (social media Iran attribution unconfirmed). EST merchant-casualty cluster — UKMTO via bne IntelliNews / Ship & Bunker

Hormuz / Iraqi tanker transit (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 12:10Z Other blockade news_report — Iran International Sep 30: Iraqi parliament speaker Haibat al-Halbousi said Iran had given Iraqi tankers no exemption from restrictions on navigation through Hormuz. EST — Iraqi political claim about Iranian transit rules; not a verified vessel stop-list. Iran International / Halbousi

Strait of Hormuz north of Khasab, Oman (EST) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 16:30Z Unknown civilian_vessel news_report — Maritime Executive / World Ports / DeepDraft Sep 29–30: IMO/shipping reporting identifies the Mon-evening (Sep 28) Hormuz projectile/fire casualty as Kuwaiti VLCC Al Funtas (316,648 dwt, built 2014, KOTC-managed, IMO 9653408). Transit reportedly AIS-dark; UKMTO received time-late third-party report; fire extinguished, vessel underway toward port of refuge, crew safe, no environmental impact reported; damage assessmen Maritime Executive / World Ports / DeepDraft / UKMTO

Strait of Hormuz (EST — Sep 29 time-late UKMTO 144-26) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 21:40Z Unknown civilian_vessel news_report — Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 144-26 time-late Sep 29 crude oil tanker struck on port side by unknown projectile identified as 2008-built VLCC Mersin Prosperity, Equasis-managed by ADNOC. Damage extent unclear; attacker unattributed; AIS reportedly off per Lloyd’s List cluster framing. EST Hormuz. NOT CONFIRMED. Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech

Strait of Hormuz inbound (EST — Sep 29 time-late UKMTO 145-26) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 21:42Z Unknown civilian_vessel news_report — Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 145-26 time-late Sep 29 inbound tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Liberian-flagged tanker Sinbad, managed by Anglo-Eastern. Only of the three named ships said to appear on Iran PGSA non-compliant list (fines/detention/confiscation risk). Damage unclear; attacker unattributed. EST. NOT CONFIRMED. Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech

Strait of Hormuz (EST — Sep 29 time-late UKMTO 146-26) (1)

  • 2026-09-30 21:44Z Unknown civilian_vessel news_report — Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 146-26 time-late Sep 29 tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Al Ruwais. Vanguard initially framed as LNG tanker; Seatrade notes vessel appears Liberia-flagged LR2 owned/operated by ADNOC. Damage unclear; attacker unattributed. EST Hormuz. NOT CONFIRMED. Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech
2026-10-01 — 6 strike / combat claim(s) in 6 area(s)

Strait of Hormuz (EST interdiction claim) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 01:48Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Iran International Sep 30 (~23:02 GMT+1): IRGC spokesman Hossein Mahdavi told state television Iran is already at war; claimed Iranian forces continued to target vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States had recently refrained from responding. Also said the US was unlikely to launch attacks on the same scale/capabilities as before, adding “In the world of war, everything is possibl Iran International / IRGC (Mahdavi via state TV)

Strait of Hormuz (EST — AIS-dark Liberian trio) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 13:40Z Unknown interdiction news_report — Reuters (via Baird Maritime) Oct 1: shipping intelligence service Marisks said three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, moving with AIS transponders off. Kpler data cited: Al Ruwais STS diesel off Sohar late Sep; VLCC Mersin Prosperity STS ~2mb Iraqi Basrah off Sohar mid-Sep; Aframax Sinbad loaded products at Saudi Jubail early Sep. ADNOC Reuters / Marisks via Baird Maritime

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 13:42Z Unknown interdiction news_report — OilPrice Oct 1 (~6:30am CDT): Marisks via Reuters — three Liberia-flagged tankers AIS-dark hit by projectiles Tue/Wed; names Al Ruwais, Mersin Prosperity (ADNOC L&S), Sinbad (Anglo-Eastern). Notes UKMTO earlier time-late warnings including Mon-evening fire (Al Funtas context) and two other Sep 29 projectile reports. Framing: analyst claims of near-prewar Hormuz oil flows coexist with severe operational risk. EST — at OilPrice / Marisks / UKMTO

Iran military / Bandar Abbas approaches (EST assessment claim) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 13:48Z USA strike official_statement — Middle East Eye (Sep 30 21:39 BST, surfaced for morning map): Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told military leaders at Quantico that US forces have “destroyed” Iran’s navy, air force, defence systems, leadership and military-industrial capacity; credited troops with destroying Iran’s “entire defense space”; added Iran’s conventional shield and nuclear ambitions have been “crippled.” EST — US official assessment claim; Middle East Eye / Hegseth

Strait of Hormuz (EST — unnamed tanker) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 21:50Z Unknown interdiction official_statement — Anadolu Agency / Arab Times Oct 1: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, causing a fire. UKMTO received a third-party report at 1750 UTC Oct 1 (Incident 147-26 – Attack). Crew reported safe; extent of damage and any environmental impact unknown. UKMTO did not identify the tanker, projectile, or responsible party. EST — separat Anadolu Agency citing UKMTO

Hormuz ~8 km off Omani coast (EST) (1)

  • 2026-10-01 21:50Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Anadolu Agency Oct 1: Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, citing local sources, reported a supertanker with ~2.5 million-barrel capacity was hit about 8 km (5 miles) off the Omani coast and on fire, saying the vessel had been sailing an “unauthorized route” through Hormuz. No vessel name, cause attribution, or casualty details in the Fars line. Pairs against UKMTO’s unattributed Incident 147-26 — Iranian framing i Anadolu Agency citing Fars
2026-10-02 — 4 strike / combat claim(s) in 4 area(s)

Strait of Hormuz (EST) (1)

  • 2026-10-02 01:50Z Other interdiction official_statement — gCaptain Oct 1 (Mike Schuler): UKMTO Warning 147-26 reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile at about 1750 UTC Oct 1, fire onboard, crew safe; no party identified as responsible. Before that warning, JMIC Update 101 (earlier Thursday) counted four confirmed attacks/disruptions in the Strait over the previous 96 hours and kept the regional threat level at SEVERE, saying deliberate attacks on commercial shippi gCaptain citing UKMTO / JMIC

Strait of Hormuz (EST — Al Ruwais / Mersin Prosperity / Sinbad) (1)

  • 2026-10-02 01:50Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Al Bawaba Oct 1 (~19:37 GMT): Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said three UAE-linked oil tankers — Al Ruwais, Mersin Prosperity and Sinbad — were targeted in the Strait after being placed on its non-compliant list (81 vessels as of Sep 28; Sinbad listed #70). AIS reportedly off during transit; no confirmed casualty toll or full damage assessment in the article. Al Ruwais/Mersin Prosperity managed by ADNOC Al Bawaba citing PGSA

Strait of Hormuz traffic lanes (EST) (1)

  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z Iran strike not_verified — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: New York Times (via Inquirer, published ~7:09 a.m. ET Oct 2) — confidential data from a Western security official: since early August Iran has launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial ships in Hormuz, often failing to hit; at least four commercial ships hit by Iran in the past 10 days. UKMTO tally since Sep 10: ≥13 ships struck by projectil New York Times / Inquirer

Strait of Hormuz — Al Ruwais / Sinbad / Mersin Prosperity (EST) (1)

  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z Iran interdiction official_statement — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: Mehr News Oct 2 (TEHRAN) — PGSA says three Emirati-owned/chartered tankers struck in recent days (Al Ruwais, Sinbad, Mersin Prosperity) were already on the waterway’s non-compliance list after repeatedly attempting transit over the past two months; warns charterers/insurers of fines, detention, or confiscation. Same trio as Oct 1 Al Bawaba/Xinhua reporting; Mehr is Iranian state confirmation Mehr News / PGSA

6. Forces / unit layer (EST, not confirmed)

134 unit/actor markers on the map; 51 re-reported this week. Positions are estimates derived from claims — NOT CONFIRMED.

New entries (21)

  • 2026-09-26T17:50 · IRGC spokesman — Hossein Mohebi (punish/conditions messaging) (Iran) · Tehran IRGC public-affairs node (estimated) source
  • 2026-09-27T17:50 · REMUS 600 AUV (IRGC seizure claim — disputed) (USA) · Strait of Hormuz (EST last-known / claimed seizure area) source
  • 2026-09-27T21:55 · Iranian army spokesman — Mohammad Akraminia (Iran) · Tehran Artesh messaging node (EST) source
  • 2026-09-28T01:50 · IRGC Navy — Ali Mohammadi (deputy political affairs) (Iran) · Bandar Abbas IRGC Navy messaging node (EST) source
  • 2026-09-28T14:05 · Supreme Leader — Mojtaba Khamenei (attributed messaging) (Iran) · Tehran — Supreme Leader messaging node (EST; not confirmed location) source
  • 2026-09-28T17:55 · Habibollah Sayyari — Army deputy coordinator (attributed Hormuz/AS statements) (Iran) · Northern Arabian Sea / east Hormuz statement area (estimated) source
  • 2026-09-28T21:45 · US Energy Secretary Chris Wright — Hormuz oil-flow messaging (USA) · Washington, D.C. (EST messaging node) source
  • 2026-09-29T17:55 · Ebrahim Azizi — Majles National Security & Foreign Policy Commission (Iran) · Tehran — Majles National Security Commission (estimated) source
  • 2026-09-29T21:45 · Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — Majles Speaker / chief negotiator (Iran) · Tehran — Majles / negotiator messaging (EST) source
  • 2026-09-30T13:50 · IRGC Deputy Commander Mostafa Izadi (Iran) · Tehran / IRGC command (EST) — Hormuz presence claim source
  • 2026-09-30T17:55 · VLCC Al Funtas (KOTC, IMO 9653408) (Other) · Strait of Hormuz north of Khasab, Oman (EST — DeepDraft; AIS reportedly dark; port-of-refuge underway) source
  • 2026-09-30T21:55 · VLCC Mersin Prosperity (ADNOC-managed, EST) (Other) · Strait of Hormuz (EST — UKMTO 144-26 Sep 29 time-late; AIS reportedly dark) source
  • 2026-09-30T21:55 · MT Sinbad (Liberian-flagged / Anglo-Eastern, EST) (Other) · Strait of Hormuz inbound (EST — UKMTO 145-26 Sep 29 time-late; AIS reportedly dark) source
  • 2026-09-30T21:55 · Al Ruwais (ADNOC LR2 / Liberia-flagged, EST) (Other) · Strait of Hormuz (EST — UKMTO 146-26 Sep 29 time-late; AIS reportedly dark) source
  • 2026-10-01T21:50 · USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward CENTCOM AOR (not yet Arabian Sea) source
  • 2026-10-01T21:50 · USS Makin Island ARG / 13th MEU (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward Middle East (with 13th MEU) source
  • 2026-10-02T01:50 · CENTCOM Task Force Falcon Strike (w/ Bahrain) (USA) · Manama / Bahrain area (EST — multinational one-way-attack drone task force HQ association) source
  • 2026-10-02T17:50 · VLCC Kazimah III (KOTC, ~317,250 dwt) (Other) · Strait of Hormuz (EST — Vanguard/Marisks ID for UKMTO 147-26; post-fire/evac reporting) source
  • 2026-10-02T17:50 · USS Anchorage (LPD-23) — Makin Island ARG (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit with Makin Island ARG (destination unconfirmed per Stripes) source
  • 2026-10-02T17:50 · USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26) — Makin Island ARG (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit with Makin Island ARG (destination unconfirmed per Stripes) source
  • 2026-10-02T17:50 · Unnamed Panama-flagged tanker (Ambrey — Kumzar inbound EST) (Other) · EST ~5.3 NM NNW Kumzar, Oman (Ambrey inbound projectile/smoke) source
EST position updates ≥5 km (15)
  • 2026-09-27T01:50 · Iran UNGA delegation (Pezeshkian / Araghchi — reported travel) (Iran) · UNGA New York — Pezeshkian/Araghchi delegation (EST) → Tehran MFA / post-UNGA messaging (EST); Pezeshkian reported departed NY earlier Sep 26 (~9850 km) source
  • 2026-09-28T14:05 · Unnamed US-contracted vessel (reported US personnel aboard) (USA) · Near Strait of Hormuz (EST — identity undisclosed) → Strait of Hormuz — unnamed non-Navy maritime vessel (EST; NBC Marines Sep 14) (~19 km) source
  • 2026-09-28T17:55 · Iran UNGA delegation (Pezeshkian / Araghchi — reported travel) (Iran) · Tehran MFA / post-UNGA messaging (EST); Pezeshkian reported departed NY earlier Sep 26 → New York — UNGA / mediator channel (estimated) (~9850 km) source
  • 2026-09-28T21:45 · CENTCOM maritime interdiction / blockade tasking (USA) · Strait of Hormuz approaches (estimated tasking area) → EST US blockade / interdiction node — Gulf of Oman / N Arabian Sea approaches (Iranian media claim of pullback from Chabahar line; US still says blockade active) (~404 km) source
  • 2026-09-29T21:45 · UKMTO reported merchant vessels — Hormuz projectile/debris incidents (Other) · Hormuz merchant-casualty cluster — Sep 23 UKMTO cargo projectile (fire/adrift/2 casualties) + prior inbound/LPG (EST) → Hormuz merchant-casualty cluster — Mon evening UKMTO projectile/fire + Fars southern-route drone claim (EST) (~6 km) source
  • 2026-09-29T21:45 · Iran UNGA delegation (Pezeshkian / Araghchi — reported travel) (Iran) · New York — UNGA / mediator channel (estimated) → Tehran (Araghchi reported departing New York — EST) (~9850 km) source
  • 2026-09-30T13:50 · UKMTO reported merchant vessels — Hormuz projectile/debris incidents (Other) · Hormuz merchant-casualty cluster — Mon evening UKMTO projectile/fire + Fars southern-route drone claim (EST) → Strait of Hormuz — UKMTO three-tanker cluster EST (Sep 29 incidents) (~7 km) source
  • 2026-09-30T17:55 · UKMTO reported merchant vessels — Hormuz projectile/debris incidents (Other) · Strait of Hormuz — UKMTO three-tanker cluster EST (Sep 29 incidents) → Strait of Hormuz — Al Funtas named + UKMTO 144/145/146-26 cluster EST (~10 km) source
  • 2026-10-01T01:55 · USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) (USA) · Arabian Sea (estimated second CSG operating area) → Arabian Sea (estimated CSG operating area — CENTCOM Sep 30) (~6 km) source
  • 2026-10-01T01:55 · Carrier Strike Group (Bush CSG / CSG-2 association) (USA) · Arabian Sea — Bush CSG operating area (estimated) → Arabian Sea — Bush CSG operating area (estimated) (~6 km) source
  • 2026-10-01T14:00 · Iran UNGA delegation (Pezeshkian / Araghchi — reported travel) (Iran) · Tehran (Araghchi reported departing New York — EST) → Doha / Tehran (EST — Araghchi reported to Doha after NY; Iran mission denies expulsion) (~1157 km) source
  • 2026-10-02T13:55 · US Navy escorts (Hormuz / Gulf corridors) (USA) · Hormuz / Gulf corridors — EST US escort activity → EST US Navy-guided southern/Oman Hormuz corridor escorts (~68 km) source
  • 2026-10-02T13:55 · USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward CENTCOM AOR (not yet Arabian Sea) → EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward CENTCOM AOR (AJ Oct 2: left San Diego Sunday) (~189 km) source
  • 2026-10-02T13:55 · USS Makin Island ARG / 13th MEU (USA) · EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward Middle East (with 13th MEU) → EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit toward Middle East (AJ: >2,000 Marines / 13th MEU) (~114 km) source
  • 2026-10-02T17:50 · UKMTO reported merchant vessels — Hormuz projectile/debris incidents (Other) · Strait of Hormuz — Al Funtas named + UKMTO 144/145/146-26 cluster EST → Strait of Hormuz merchant-risk cluster (EST — UKMTO 147-26/148-26 + Ambrey Kumzar) (~11 km) source

7. Diplomatic / political claims (86)

  • 2026-09-28 19:30Z USA diplomacy news_report — ABC News Sep 28 afternoon: US officials said after Trump’s weekend reject of Iran’s proposal he remains open to sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian assets in exchange for concrete progress toward a nuclear deal. Trump confirmed US and Iranian officials spoke via mediators on Monday. ABC notes Iran has not indicated willingness to bring the nuclear issue into negotiations at this point. Overlaps PBS/AP Oman ABC News (Shannon Kingston) / US officials
  • 2026-09-29 00:02Z Iran diplomacy news_report — Straits Times Sep 29 (Bloomberg): people familiar say Iranian officials privately pessimistic about a deal to end hostilities and reopen Hormuz before Nov midterms; high chance of escalation after Nov 3 vote; little NY UNGA progress; mutual distrust. US told mediators it wants firm Hormuz reopen commitments + nuclear concessions. One US official: no deal unless nuclear addressed; same piece also said Trump willing sa The Straits Times / Bloomberg
  • 2026-09-29 00:30Z USA diplomacy official_statement — Al Jazeera Sep 29 liveblog + Moneycontrol/AFP: Trump rejected a news report that his administration offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds, calling the story a “hoax” on social media. Denial followed Axios-style reporting that he might ease sanctions/release frozen assets for concrete nuclear progress. Same Monday window still had mediated US–Iran contact acknowledged. EST — official denial of offer Al Jazeera (liveblog) / AFP via Moneycontrol
  • 2026-09-29 01:30Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Anadolu Agency Sep 29 citing IRNA: late Monday in New York, FM Abbas Araghchi said he met again with Qatari mediators; Qatar will present the US with “new ideas” discussed with Tehran on how to meet Iran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz. Araghchi hopes Washington’s final response “by tomorrow” (Tuesday), then leaves NY for Tehran within hours; Qatari mediators to relay US reply. Said contacts via Qatar/Pakistan had Anadolu Agency / IRNA (Araghchi)
  • 2026-09-29 03:50Z Other diplomacy news_report — India Today Sep 29 (AP/PTI inputs, Cairo): mediators continue Hormuz reopen talks; one US official — Washington will not agree to a deal until nuclear issues addressed; another — Trump open to non-military resolution. Draft still described as reopen strait + lift US blockade then remove sanctions; Oman arrangement, no tolls. Araghchi also met UN Secretary-General António Guterres Monday; UN office welcomed diplomatic India Today / AP (PTI inputs)
  • 2026-09-29 04:02Z Other shipping news_report — CNBC Sep 29 (Anniek Bao): Kpler Monday note — Middle East crude exports at just under 80% of pre-conflict levels (war-time high rebound). Real-time Hormuz clearance Saturday 10,591 kilobarrels/day vs pre-war baseline 17,133. Same piece: Araghchi met Qatari mediators; Trump Monday “We’re going to win. It’s going to go pretty quickly.” Diesel retail ~$6.53/gal; possible US diesel export ban ~1.2 mbd kept home (Kpler es CNBC / Kpler
  • 2026-09-29 06:32Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — France 24 Sep 29 (AFP): Araghchi said late Monday Qatari intermediaries “presented ideas, and we discussed them; they are set to raise the matter with the American side once more, after which the final US response will be conveyed to us.” Qataris hope reply “by tomorrow” (Tuesday). Focus “solely on the Strait of Hormuz”; reopen contingent on Iran’s communicated conditions (ceasefire incl. Lebanon, unfreeze assets, li France 24 / AFP (Araghchi via state media)
  • 2026-09-29 12:30Z USA diplomacy news_report — Al Jazeera Sep 29 article: a US official said indirect US–Iran talks via mediators were “positive and constructive,” but there would be no agreement to end the war unless Iran’s nuclear programme is addressed. Same official said Trump is willing to relieve sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for nuclear progress, and that sides remain apart on sequencing (“who takes which steps first”). Frame confl Al Jazeera (staff) — unnamed US official
  • 2026-09-29 14:22Z Iran threat official_statement — CNA/RFE/Iran Intl Sep 29: Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (also spelled Qalibaf) warned in a state-TV video that if Iran cannot sell oil, “no one else will sell oil either,” and “if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will remain safe.” Rhetoric as Tehran awaits a formal US reply on Hormuz reopen plan. EST threat — no verified new strike geometry. CNA / AFP inputs; RFE/RL; Iran International
  • 2026-09-29 14:30Z Other diplomacy official_statement — CNA Sep 29: Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said Tuesday there had been “several meetings and messages have been exchanged, including some in New York and earlier,” and that “current efforts are focused on building common ground between the parties.” Also urged Iran to take a clear non-aggression position toward neighbors. EST mediator framing — outcome NOT CONFIRMED. CNA citing Qatar MFA spox Majed Al Ansari
  • 2026-09-29 16:15Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Iran International Sep 29 afternoon wrap: Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Iran is “not afraid of war and we do not run away from negotiations,” coupling readiness for further conflict with openness to diplomacy amid Ghalibaf infrastructure threats and the IRGC open letter. EST dual-track messaging — no verified military restart. Iran International
  • 2026-09-29 16:35Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Reuters Sep 29: Mohebbi called Trump a “big liar” / “inveterate liar,” saying the US “knows that Iran is not after nuclear weapons” and that Washington’s issue is Iran’s “vastness, which they want to destroy.” Independent/AP: he said war ends only if Washington admits defeat and leaves, and urged Americans to protest. EST Iranian official narrative — contradicts US nuclear-first sequencing lines. Reuters + The Independent/AP quotes
  • 2026-09-29 16:42Z Iran political official_statement — Reuters/Mehr Sep 29: Mohebbi presented a ~25-page IRGC “open letter to the American people,” urging midterm voters to reject Trump’s policies and accept peaceful coexistence if US policy changes; told reporters he did not expect to change the administration but hoped voters would hear the message. Mehr: Americans can live peacefully with Iran if they separate from Israel. EST propaganda/political claim — not a milita Mehr News Agency + Reuters (Yahoo)
  • 2026-09-29 16:46Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Iran MFA English transcript (dated 2026/09/29): Araghchi said Leader-set conditions must be fulfilled to reopen Hormuz; seven-point plan conveyed via Qatar; awaiting official US response through intermediaries. He ‘categorically’ stated ‘there has been no change whatsoever in Iran’s positions’ and ‘absolutely no discussion of any flexibility on our part.’ ‘At present, the only issue is the Strait of Hormuz.’ EST — of Iran MFA / Araghchi
  • 2026-09-29 17:10Z Other diplomacy news_report — The Independent Sep 29: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday Russia does not want Iran to quit the NPT and counts on Tehran remaining a party, responding to Iranian officials’ comments about possible withdrawal. Peripheral to Hormuz corridor but tied to nuclear-track sequencing in mediator talks. EST diplomatic statement. The Independent citing Kremlin/Peskov
  • 2026-09-29 20:00Z Iran diplomacy news_report — Al Jazeera Sep 29: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left New York on Tuesday after telling IRIB he expects an official US response to Tehran’s Hormuz reopen proposal by end of day; still denies a formal rejection despite Trump’s public dismissals; says Qatar will convey the final answer and that Iran’s position “has not changed.” EST diplomatic movement — no verified deal. Al Jazeera (Daniel Khalili-Tari) / IRIB cite
  • 2026-09-30 08:52Z USA diplomacy news_report — Moneycontrol Sep 30: Iran said it received a formal US response to Tehran’s proposal to end the war and reopen Hormuz, days after Trump publicly rejected an earlier proposal. Qatar mediating; Iran conditions cited include ceasefire, asset unfreeze, sanctions relief, end to US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Washington says oil still moves; Tehran says strait effectively closed. EST mediated exchange — text not publi Moneycontrol / Iranian state media cite
  • 2026-09-30 12:05Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Iran International / Moneycontrol Sep 30: Araghchi received US feedback on Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopen proposal via Qatari mediators in Doha Tuesday night (Reuters-briefed official: sequencing is main disagreement, not elements). Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani: at Wednesday cabinet, Araghchi presented the American side’s proposal to President Pezeshkian and briefed on NY trip / Hormuz conditions. Trump Iran International / Moneycontrol / IRNA (Mohajerani)
  • 2026-09-30 21:46Z Other shipping news_report — Lloyd’s List Sep 30: UKMTO alerts cover three separate attacks on Mersin Prosperity, Sinbad and Al Ruwais while AIS off; follows Al Funtas strike; ceasefire talks framed as failed/breakdown. LL Intelligence: only limited vessel movements through strait; most recorded transits via Larak Island detour; no traceable crossings recorded Tuesday. EST — traffic pattern theme, not holdings change. Lloyd's List
  • 2026-09-30 21:50Z Iran diplomacy news_report — Iran International Sep 30: Moderate daily Sharq (Ahmad Zeidabadi) argued US detailed feedback via Qatar shows diplomatic off-ramp remains open despite rigidity; urged preserving Qatari channel and a two-stage approach — targeted technical assurances incl. temporary IAEA monitoring in return for immediate phased easing of commercial-transit restrictions under Islamabad memorandum; rejected military escalation. Contras Iran International / Sharq
  • 2026-10-01 01:42Z USA diplomacy news_report — Iran International Oct 1 citing Axios (Wed): Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi’s delegation to leave New York on Monday after US–Iran talks stalled; a US official said Rubio “kicked out the Iranian delegation who had overstayed their welcome” once UNGA ended. USUN told Iran’s mission Monday evening to leave immediately; delegation flew to Doha early Tuesday. A second source said Araghch Iran International / Axios
  • 2026-10-01 01:44Z Other analysis analysis — CTP-ISW Iran Update Sep 30: Key Hormuz takeaway — Iran is attempting to secure an agreement in which it obtains some economic relief before easing Hormuz restrictions or making nuclear concessions. Confirms Araghchi received US response via Qatar; Reuters-briefed official — seven-day “trust-building” plan aims at enhanced June MoU with concrete nuclear steps; primary disagreement is sequencing, not components. US/par CTP-ISW (Critical Threats / ISW)
  • 2026-10-01 01:50Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Iran International Sep 30: President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Wednesday that his government was seeking to bring the Islamabad understanding to fruition; he did not comment directly on Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day Hormuz proposal. Same wrap notes competing Tehran press lines on whether Hormuz leverage is eroding (Etemad) vs hardline rejection of “ineffectiveness” narratives (Kharatian) and Khorasan “Plan Iran International / Pezeshkian
  • 2026-10-01 13:46Z USA diplomacy official_statement — Politico Oct 1: President Trump said Wednesday he would decide “very soon” whether to “blow up” Iran, telling Oval Office reporters “We have to make that decision: We blow them up or make a deal.” Asked how he planned to negotiate with Iranian officials, he replied “Maybe you blow them up.” Came as Tehran said it received Washington’s formal response to its seven-day Hormuz/ceasefire proposal. EST — presidential rhet Politico / President Trump
  • 2026-10-01 13:50Z USA diplomacy official_statement — The National Oct 1: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran’s UN delegation to leave after indirect talks stalled; Axios-cited US official: “Secretary Rubio kicked out the Iranian delegation who had overstayed their welcome. The UN General Assembly was over, so it was time for them to go.” Same piece: Araghchi received Washington’s response to seven-day Hormuz reopen proposal via Qatari mediators in Doha on We The National / Rubio via Axios
  • 2026-10-01 13:51Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — The National Oct 1: Iran’s UN mission denied expulsion, saying the delegation left New York Monday evening “in accordance with the schedule that had also been communicated to the US Department of State in advance on September 17,” and calling State Department reports “baseless.” Directly contradicts Rubio/Axios kick-out framing. EST — competing official statements. The National / Iran UN Mission
  • 2026-10-01 13:52Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Iran International Oct 1 (~08:21 GMT+1): IRGC statement hailed US forces’ withdrawal from Iraq as start of wider American retreat — “The expulsion of the United States from Iraq is the beginning of their expulsion from all of West Asia”; demanded America leave the region and leave security management to nations themselves; framed as Axis of Resistance gain. Mehr/AA same day carry fuller text calling it “historic vict Iran International / IRGC
  • 2026-10-01 13:54Z USA diplomacy official_statement — The National Oct 1: State Department on Wednesday criticised a 26-page IRGC open letter to the American public — spokesman said the IRGC’s “desperate effort to lie to the American people does not change the hard facts about the Iranian regime’s record,” claimed US military operations had damaged Iran’s defence industrial base, navy and air force, and accused Tehran of choosing “terror over prosperity.” EST — US rheto The National / State Department
  • 2026-10-01 17:50Z USA sanctions official_statement — OFAC Oct 1 release: under Operation Economic Outcast, published EO 13902 Determination covering Automotive and Rail Sectors of the Iranian economy and added multiple Iran-related SDN designations/updates — including Iran Khodro, SAIPA, Pars Khodro, Zamyad, Iran Khodro Diesel, HEPCO, Islamic Republic of Iran Railway Company, Raja Passenger Trains, plus Hong Kong/UAE/China/Turkey facilitators and steel-linked names. Fr US Treasury OFAC
  • 2026-10-01 17:50Z Other analysis analysis — Soufan Center IntelBrief Oct 1: US and Iranian leaders each believe they hold leverage for maximal goals; UNGA flurry did not measurably advance settlement. US side — perceiving Hormuz opened militarily — shifting focus to nuclear concessions; cites JP Morgan/Goldman regional energy flows >95% pre-war (some shipping observers closer to ~50%). Iranian side — escalation-dominance / threaten shipping + Gulf energy infra The Soufan Center
  • 2026-10-01 17:50Z Iran diplomacy news_report — Middle East Monitor Oct 1: Tehran said Wednesday it received a US response to its seven-day Hormuz reopen / war-ending proposal; spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said FM Araghchi presented it to President Pezeshkian in cabinet. Reuters-cited source: Qatari mediators briefed Araghchi in Doha Tuesday; sides broadly agree on steps but disagree on implementation order/sequence. Pezeshkian: any deal should be “win-win.” Axi Middle East Monitor / Reuters / Axios
  • 2026-10-01 21:50Z USA threat official_statement — Fortune/AP Oct 1 summarizing Time magazine interview published Thursday (conducted Monday): Trump said it is “possible” he will ramp up bombing in Iran after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections; declined to detail targets (“you’re asking, where are you going to bomb?”). Said he rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire/Hormuz-reopen proposal because it was “not good enough,” citing that things he “wouldn’t have approved a year Fortune / AP citing Time interview
  • 2026-10-02 01:50Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Anadolu Agency Oct 1 citing IRNA: Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told Russia-1 that reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinges on the US providing “objective guarantees” to end the war on all fronts and fulfilling Tehran’s seven-day initiative (end hostilities, release frozen assets, lift oil restrictions/blockade first; then Iran reopen Hormuz and negotiate). He said the initiative went via Qatar, Araghchi gav Anadolu Agency / IRNA
  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z Other assessment osint_assessment — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: CTP-ISW Iran Update, October 1, 2026 (data cutoff 2:00 PM ET) — first weekday Iran Update after Sep 30. Key Hormuz/war takeaways: Iranian officials likely threatening attacks on US targets outside the Middle East to deter renewed US strikes after Trump midterm warnings; English-language regime media circulated senior IRGC Aerospace Force officer comments that Iran can hit moving targets with CTP-ISW
  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z USA threat official_statement — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: Al Jazeera Oct 2 — late Thursday at a Peterbilt plant in Denton, Texas, Trump warned the confrontation will end “very soon,” saying Iran will either “do something very proper and smart, or they won’t be around very long,” and questioned whether Tehran would honor any deal. Paired with Time interview noting possible post-midterm bombing. Diplomatic leverage claim, not a confirmed new strike o Al Jazeera
  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z Iran diplomacy official_statement — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: Al Jazeera Oct 2 — Iran FM Abbas Araghchi told NBC Tehran was “fully prepared” to resume the war, then wrote on X that “we did not come to New York to sell a war. We came to forge peace.” Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopen roadmap (end blockade, sanctions relief, Lebanon/Yemen ceasefire) was rejected by Trump; Amb. Waltz called frozen-funds/sanctions-relief demands non-negotiable citing UNSC res Al Jazeera / NBC
  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z USA sanctions official_statement — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: CNBC Oct 2 — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed in an X post Thursday that Iran loaded “ZERO crude oil” onto tankers in September, amid OFAC Operation Economic Outcast auto/rail designations and A7 network sanctions. Separately CNBC notes TR CSG + Makin Island amphibious force en route; WSJ says full buildup complete by November. Contradicts Iranian leverage narratives if accurate; tan CNBC / Bessent
  • 2026-10-02 13:55Z USA diplomacy official_statement — Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: Gulf News Oct 2 live updates — US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz accused Iran of violating nuclear obligations by enriching uranium to 60%, saying the level has “no credible civilian purpose,” and accused Tehran of restricting IAEA inspector access. Iran maintains enrichment is peaceful under the NPT. Nuclear-file claim used alongside Hormuz leverage disputes. EST / Unverified. Gulf News / Waltz
  • 2026-10-02 17:50Z Iran political reported — Midday ~11:50am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK: WANA / APA / UNI Oct 2 — Majles National Security Commission spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi (Qashqavi) said the commission completed its process on the “Strategic Action… Strait of Hormuz” bill (Art. 16 repeals conflicting laws). Would implement Iranian management of entry/exit; charge fees for navigation, environmental protection, bunkering/fuel and related services; bar Israeli, ho WANA / APA citing Tasnim / Ghashghavi
  • 2026-10-02 17:50Z Other presence news_report — Midday ~11:50am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK: Soufan Center IntelBrief Oct 2 — “Shakshuka in the Gulf” options memo: crude through Hormuz reportedly ~80% of pre-war volume; with pipelines ~98% pre-war total; refined products and fertilizers still below; Europeans reluctant to send warships; blockade+sanctions biting but Iran pain tolerance high; Trump reject of Iran seven-day Hormuz reopen proposal; reports Trump anticipates The Soufan Center

8. Claims to watch next week

Open, contested or unconfirmed items worth following. This is not a forecast — no predictions are made.

  • contradiction Afternoon ~3:50pm MT Oct 1 FULL-STACK contradiction: (a) UKMTO Incident 147-26 — unnamed tanker hit by unknown projectile Thursday, fire, crew safe, no attacker named (AA/Arab Times/Shafaq); (b) Fars via AA — ~2.5 mb supertanker hit ~8 km off Oman on “unauthorized route” (Iranian enforcement framing); (c) Fortune/AP + Al-Monitor — ~9k sailors/Marines with Theodore Roosevelt CSG + Makin Island/13th MEU cycling toward AA/UKMTO + Fars + Fortune/AP + Al-Monitor
  • contradiction Evening ~7:50pm MT Oct 1 FULL-STACK contradiction: (a) Iran DFM Khatibzadeh — Hormuz reopen only after US “objective guarantees” / seven-day sequencing (AA/IRNA); (b) Trump via Iran Intl — “We took it over,” record-night traffic, offer still not good enough, post-midterm bombing possible; (c) gCaptain/JMIC Update 101 — SEVERE threat, 4 attacks in 96h before UKMTO 147-26 tanker fire at 1750 UTC; (d) PGSA via Al Bawaba AA + Iran Intl + gCaptain + Al Bawaba + IranWire
  • contradiction Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK contradiction: (a) NYT Western official — ~30 drones + ~10 ASCMs/week since August, ≥4 ships hit in 10 days, IRGC near-daily confirmation, while CENTCOM silent and US not striking Iran since early Sep; (b) Al Jazeera/CNBC — TR CSG + Makin Island/13th MEU en route, three carriers + two ARGs by end November, Trump Denton “won’t be around very long”; (c) Araghchi NBC — “fully prepared NYT + Al Jazeera + CNBC + CTP-ISW
  • contradiction Midday ~11:50am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK contradiction: (a) UKMTO Friday 1122 GMT outbound tanker projectile → small fire/blackout, extinguished, underway (AA) PLUS Ambrey Panama inbound smoke near Kumzar (Riviera) PLUS Vanguard/Marisks naming of Thursday’s 147-26 fire tanker as KOTC Kazimah III; (b) Majles NSC completes Hormuz “management” bill — fees, General Staff permits, ban Israel/hostile/military cargo — still not AA + Splash/Riviera + WANA + Stripes + Soufan
  • open Midday ~11:50am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK: WANA / APA / UNI Oct 2 — Majles National Security Commission spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi (Qashqavi) said the commission completed its process on the “Strategic Action… Strait of Hormuz” bill (Art. 16 repeals conflicting laws). Would implement Iranian management of entry/exit; charge fees for navigation, environmental protection, bunkering/fuel and related services; bar Israeli, ho WANA / APA citing Tasnim / Ghashghavi
  • open Midday ~11:50am MT Oct 2 FULL-STACK: Stars and Stripes Oct 2 (Alison Bath, Naples) — Makin Island ARG (USS Makin Island, USS Anchorage, USS John P. Murtha + 13th MEU) departed San Diego Monday after TR CSG Sunday; WSJ unnamed officials — third CSG + MEU adding ~9–10k sailors/Marines by end November. Caveat: Roosevelt may replace another carrier and Makin destination unconfirmed, so buildup size unclear. Navy confirme Stars and Stripes / USNI / WSJ
  • open Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: NYT/Inquirer Oct 2 — analysts say part of the regional oil-export rebound is a US military operation protecting vessels on a U.S. Navy-guided route through Oman’s territorial waters, with fighter jets and attack helicopters helping ward off strikes; some ships turn AIS transponders off. Kpler’s Ana Subasic: rebound “doesn’t mean we’re seeing a normalization of flows.” Contradicts pure Irania New York Times / Inquirer
  • open Morning ~7:55am MT Oct 2: CTP-ISW Oct 1 citing Reuters — three senior Iranian officials + insider say decision-makers are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US assets in the region to possibly countries outside the region if the United States renews strikes on Iran. CTP assesses the public reveal is very likely deterrence messaging tied to Trump’s post-midterm strike warnings. NOT CONFIRMED operationa CTP-ISW / Reuters
  • open Reuters (via Baird Maritime) Oct 1: shipping intelligence service Marisks said three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, moving with AIS transponders off. Kpler data cited: Al Ruwais STS diesel off Sohar late Sep; VLCC Mersin Prosperity STS ~2mb Iraqi Basrah off Sohar mid-Sep; Aframax Sinbad loaded products at Saudi Jubail early Sep. ADNOC Reuters / Marisks via Baird Maritime
  • open Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 146-26 time-late Sep 29 tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Al Ruwais. Vanguard initially framed as LNG tanker; Seatrade notes vessel appears Liberia-flagged LR2 owned/operated by ADNOC. Damage unclear; attacker unattributed. EST Hormuz. NOT CONFIRMED. Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech
  • open Maritime Executive / World Ports Sep 29–30 citing IMO: confirmed vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf area now tallied at 86 with 24 fatalities; Indian media cited as confirming deaths of two El Gaia seafarers (IMO still listed missing); another death reported aboard Cape Dao Sep 23. Same pieces name Al Funtas as latest Kuwaiti tanker strike. EST aggregate tally — not independently verified here; map retains unverifi World Ports / Maritime Executive / IMO cite
  • territory Whether any of this week’s territorial claims (Section 4) appear in independent assessed-control reporting; this site’s EST territory layer showed no assessed change this week.

9. Sources (137)

Show all source links
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  98. www.iranintl.com/en/202609269443 Iran International / Mojtaba Zarei · 1 claim(s)
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  103. www.iranintl.com/en/202609277189 Iran International / IRGC–Tasnim · 1 claim(s)
  104. www.iranintl.com/en/202609279946 Iran International / Tasnim (Hatami) · 1 claim(s)
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  106. www.iranintl.com/en/202609288369 Iran International / Fox News (Bessent) · 1 claim(s)
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  108. www.iranintl.com/en/202609290526 Iran International · 1 claim(s)
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  111. www.iranintl.com/en/202609306760 Iran International / Jalali · 1 claim(s)
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  113. www.iranintl.com/en/202610014727 Iran International / IRGC · 1 claim(s)
  114. www.iranintl.com/en/202610016335 Iran International · 1 claim(s)
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  118. www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/hegseth-say Middle East Eye / Hegseth · 1 claim(s)
  119. www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/us-rejects- Middle East Eye / Al Jazeera / CENTCOM · 1 claim(s)
  120. www.middleeastmonitor.com/20261001-tehran-receives-us-respon Middle East Monitor / Reuters / Axios · 1 claim(s)
  121. www.moneycontrol.com/world/iran-receives-formal-us-response- Moneycontrol / Iranian state media cite · 1 claim(s)
  122. www.moneycontrol.com/world/uss-george-washington-in-arabian- Moneycontrol / CENTCOM (via X) · 1 claim(s)
  123. www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-marines-injure NBC News (Courtney Kube) / three US officials · 1 claim(s)
  124. www.pbs.org/newshour/world/mediators-still-working-on-u-s-ir PBS / AP (Samy Magdy, Matthew Lee) · 1 claim(s)
  125. www.politico.com/news/2026/10/01/trump-threatens-to-blow-up- Politico / President Trump · 1 claim(s)
  126. www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/27/777095/Iran-IRGC-US-ship PressTV / Fars (IRGC Navy) · 1 claim(s)
  127. www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/hormuz-blacklist-expands- Seatrade Maritime (Gary Howard) · 1 claim(s)
  128. www.siasat.com/iran-supreme-leader-says-enemies-will-be-driv Siasat citing Reuters / LSEG / Kpler · 1 claim(s)
  129. www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-officials-pessim The Straits Times / Bloomberg · 1 claim(s)
  130. www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2026-10-02/makin-island-middle Stars and Stripes / USNI / WSJ · 1 claim(s)
  131. www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/09/26/3706407/iran-assures-sa Tasnim News Agency · 1 claim(s)
  132. www.tehrantimes.com/news/530484/Iran-fires-on-vessels-traver Tehran Times / Fars News Agency · 1 claim(s)
  133. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/27/trump-un-ambassador- The Guardian / CNN State of the Union (Waltz) · 1 claim(s)
  134. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/26/trump-dismiss-iran-sev The Guardian / Politico EU · 1 claim(s)
  135. www.turkiyetoday.com/region/us-nato-envoy-backs-trumps-rejec Türkiye Today / Fox News (Whitaker) · 1 claim(s)
  136. www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/analysis/iran-shipping-upda UANI (Brown / Shelley) · 1 claim(s)
  137. www.worldports.org/kuwaiti-tanker-struck-in-the-strait-of-ho World Ports / Maritime Executive / IMO cite · 1 claim(s)

Annex A — Multi-day, cumulative & nationwide figures (listed, not summed)

  • 2026-09-27 · 1 Drones / UAVs · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “Also notes IRGC Sunday video of claimed second US underwater drone seized this month (REMUS 600).” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 861 Civilians wounded / injured · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials · aggregate — “eight added to DCAS (~861 injured tally as of Wed) nearly 10 days later” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · earlier event (before window) — “injuries “not significant.” Notes UKMTO tracked a commercial vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” Sep 14 with no injuries reported at the time” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 122 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “UANI Iran Shipping Update Sep 28: As of Sep 25, US forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels attempting the Iran-port blockade, disabled three, boarded two” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 24 Civilians killed · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “Maritime Executive / World Ports Sep 29–30 citing IMO: confirmed vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf area now tallied at 86 with 24 fatalities” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 81 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “were targeted in the Strait after being placed on its non-compliant list (81 vessels as of Sep 28” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “Follows Sep 28 Al Funtas VLCC hit and Sep 29 UKMTO trio warnings” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 30 Launched against: Drones launched/engaged · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “confidential data from a Western security official: since early August Iran has launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial ships in Hormuz, often fail” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 10 Launched against: Missiles launched/engaged · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “confidential data from a Western security official: since early August Iran has launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial ships in Hormuz, often fail” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 4 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “at least four commercial ships hit by Iran in the past 10 days” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 13 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “UKMTO tally since Sep 10: ≥13 ships struck by projectiles/debris” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “PGSA says three Emirati-owned/chartered tankers struck in recent days (Al Ruwais, Sinbad, Mersin Prosperity) were already on the waterway’s non-compliance list after repeatedly attempting transit over” source

Annex B — Component figures (breakdowns of an official tally; not summed)

None.

Annex C — Figure ledger (39 extracted figures)

Every figure extracted, with its source
  • 2026-09-26 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by US government (White House / State / Treasury) · event — “Al Jazeera Sep 26: Trump told reporters outside the White House “I reject their proposal,” adding Iran wants an agreement because they’re “losing so badly.” AJ Washington correspondent Mike Hanna asse” source
  • 2026-09-27 · 1 Drones / UAVs · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — “Iran International / CNBC / Al Jazeera Sep 27: IRGC Navy said Sunday it seized an advanced US military underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz, identified as a REMUS 600 autonomous underwater vehic” source
  • 2026-09-27 · 1 Drones / UAVs · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “Also notes IRGC Sunday video of claimed second US underwater drone seized this month (REMUS 600).” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials · event — “amplified Sep 28 by Iran International/AA): three US officials said eight US Marines (7 enlisted + 1 officer) were injured Sep 14 when an Iranian anti-ship cruise missile struck a maritime vessel they” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials · event — “amplified Sep 28 by Iran International/AA): three US officials said eight US Marines (7 enlisted + 1 officer) were injured Sep 14 when an Iranian anti-ship cruise missile struck a maritime vessel they” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 861 Civilians wounded / injured · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials · aggregate — “eight added to DCAS (~861 injured tally as of Wed) nearly 10 days later” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 8 Personnel wounded · target United States / partners · claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials · event — “ABC News Sep 28 (~12:17pm EDT update): a US official confirmed to ABC that eight Marines were recently hurt in an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · earlier event (before window) — “injuries “not significant.” Notes UKMTO tracked a commercial vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” Sep 14 with no injuries reported at the time” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 122 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “UANI Iran Shipping Update Sep 28: As of Sep 25, US forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels attempting the Iran-port blockade, disabled three, boarded two” source
  • 2026-09-28 · 19 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.) · event — “CTP: IRGC claimed 19 vessel attacks Sep 26–27 with no substantiating evidence observed” source
  • 2026-09-29 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Anadolu Agency / Iran International Sep 29: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a vessel was struck by a suspected unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday evening” source
  • 2026-09-29 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.) · event — “Notes likely Iranian projectile struck a vessel Sep 28 (fire)” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Warning 144-26 crude oil tanker struck port side” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “145-26 inbound tanker struck” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “146-26 LNG tanker struck” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — ““We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond.” Same piece: tanker-trackers put oil/petroleum flows through Hormuz near ~80% of pre-w” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “inbound tanker struck” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “third tanker struck (fewest details)” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 24 Civilians killed · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “Maritime Executive / World Ports Sep 29–30 citing IMO: confirmed vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf area now tallied at 86 with 24 fatalities” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 144-26 time-late Sep 29 crude oil tanker struck on port side by unknown projectile identified as 2008-built VLCC Mersin Prosperity, Equasis-mana” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 145-26 time-late Sep 29 inbound tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Liberian-flagged tanker Sinbad, managed by Anglo-Eastern” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Seatrade Maritime / Vanguard Tech Sep 30: UKMTO warning 146-26 time-late Sep 29 tanker struck by unknown projectile identified as Al Ruwais” source
  • 2026-09-30 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — “called for non-attributable maritime interdictions, deployment of coastal anti-ship batteries and expanded targeting of Western-escorted vessels so energy markets face “unbearable cost” before Washing” source
  • 2026-10-01 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Reuters (via Baird Maritime) Oct 1: shipping intelligence service Marisks said three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, m” source
  • 2026-10-01 · 3 Armor (tanks, AFVs, APCs) · target Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable) · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “~2/3 oil volume via STS. Same piece: UKMTO time-late three tanker hits (one unconfirmed LNG)” source
  • 2026-10-01 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “~2/3 oil volume via STS. Same piece: UKMTO time-late three tanker hits (one unconfirmed LNG)” source
  • 2026-10-01 · 3 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — “Wednesday observers reported IRGC may have fired on three tankers” source
  • 2026-10-01 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Anadolu Agency / Arab Times Oct 1: UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, causing a fire” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “gCaptain Oct 1 (Mike Schuler): UKMTO Warning 147-26 reported a tanker struck by an unknown projectile at about 1750 UTC Oct 1, fire onboard, crew safe” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 4 Launched against: Ground attacks / engagements · target Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable) · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · event — “Before that warning, JMIC Update 101 (earlier Thursday) counted four confirmed attacks/disruptions in the Strait over the previous 96 hours and kept the regional threat level at SEVERE, saying deliber” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 81 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “were targeted in the Strait after being placed on its non-compliant list (81 vessels as of Sep 28” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “Follows Sep 28 Al Funtas VLCC hit and Sep 29 UKMTO trio warnings” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Iran / IRGC · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — “English-language regime media circulated senior IRGC Aerospace Force officer comments that Iran can hit moving targets with long-range ballistic missiles (assessed as deterrence IO)” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Civilian buildings (incidents) · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · event — “English-language regime media circulated comments from a senior IRGC Aerospace Force officer that Iran has developed the ability to hit moving targets with long-range ballistic missiles” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 30 Launched against: Drones launched/engaged · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “confidential data from a Western security official: since early August Iran has launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial ships in Hormuz, often fail” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 10 Launched against: Missiles launched/engaged · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “confidential data from a Western security official: since early August Iran has launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks per week against commercial ships in Hormuz, often fail” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 4 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Western security official (anonymous, via media) · aggregate — “at least four commercial ships hit by Iran in the past 10 days” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 13 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) · aggregate — “UKMTO tally since Sep 10: ≥13 ships struck by projectiles/debris” source
  • 2026-10-02 · 1 Ships / vessels · target Other / commercial shipping & third parties · claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources · aggregate — “PGSA says three Emirati-owned/chartered tankers struck in recent days (Al Ruwais, Sinbad, Mersin Prosperity) were already on the waterway’s non-compliance list after repeatedly attempting transit over” source

Annex D — Method

Figures are extracted automatically from the English summaries of this map’s claim records (claims.json) by fixed text rules; nothing is estimated or imputed. Each figure is credited to the party the claim cites (the claimant) and assigned to the side that the claim says suffered the loss. Per-event figures are de-duplicated: repeat reports of the same event (same UTC day, same ~10 km area, same claimant) count once, and when they disagree the range runs from the lowest to the highest figure reported. Rolling official tallies (e.g. daily General Staff / MoD loss counts) are kept in a separate table and are never added to per-event sums. Multi-day, nationwide, monthly or cumulative figures are listed separately and not summed. Totals from different claimants are never added together. Separate incidents in the same area on the same day may merge into one range, so per-event totals can undercount; rule-based extraction can also misread text — every figure links to its source in the ledger so it can be checked. Synthesis / cross-source ‘contradiction’ records are excluded from all figures to avoid double counting. Losses are grouped by the side that suffered them, parsed from the claim text and claimant (never from the map’s side tag); figures whose victim cannot be determined are shown under ‘Side unclear’. Official day tallies are bucketed by UTC date, so an interim evening update and the next-morning full-day figure can overlap — treat tally sums as upper bounds.