{ "conflict": "iran-usa", "title": "Iran–USA / Strait of Hormuz", "short": "IRAN–USA", "site": "https://iran-usa-claim-map-2026.pages.dev", "reportDate": "2026-10-16", "window": { "start": "2026-10-10T00:00:00Z", "end": "2026-10-16T23:59:59Z" }, "generatedAt": "2026-10-16T19:22:06Z", "dataCutoff": "2026-10-16T13:02:18Z", "label": "UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED — INFO/SA ONLY", "totalsLabel": "CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED", "counts": { "claims": 125, "bySide": { "Other": 47, "Iran": 45, "USA": 28, "Unknown": 5 }, "byType": { "other": 40, "civilian_vessel": 38, "blockade": 17, "naval": 14, "strike": 9, "movement": 5, "unit_sighting": 2 }, "byStatus": { "official_statement": 71, "not_verified": 30, "corroborated": 17, "contradicted": 4, "news_report": 2, "analysis": 1 }, "sources": 114, "topLocations": [ [ "Strait of Hormuz (EST)", 11 ], [ "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", 5 ], [ "Tehran (statement)", 4 ], [ "Strait of Hormuz", 3 ], [ "Strait of Hormuz (statement; EST pin)", 3 ], [ "Strait of Hormuz (EST, exact position not given)", 2 ] ] }, "bluf": [ "125 open-source claim records were logged on this map between 10 Oct and 16 Oct 2026 (UTC), citing 114 distinct source links. All are UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED. Map side tags: Other 47, Iran 45, USA 28, Unknown 5.", "Most-reported locations: Strait of Hormuz (EST) (11); Strait of Hormuz (assessment) (5); Tehran (statement) (4); Strait of Hormuz (3); Strait of Hormuz (statement; EST pin) (3).", "United States / partners side: 3 United States / partners personnel killed, claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials (1 event(s), deduped) — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).", "1 civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries) killed, claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) (1 event(s), deduped) — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).", "3 civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries) wounded, claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources (1 event(s), deduped) — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).", "Iran / IRGC side: 1 — strike / attack events reported (deduped), claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials — CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED (1 claim record).", "Territory: no territorial-gain claims found in the records; no assessed change in the map’s EST territory layer.", "Units layer: 12 new unit/actor entries and 12 EST position updates (≥5 km) — all NOT CONFIRMED / ESTIMATED.", "15 figure-claim(s) could not be assigned to the side that suffered the loss and are listed under “Side unclear” in Section 2." ], "headline": [ { "side": "USA", "metric": "killed", "label": "Personnel killed", "low": 3, "high": 3, "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "nClaims": 1, "basis": "per-event sum (deduped)", "text": "United States / partners side: 3 United States / partners personnel killed, claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials (1 event(s), deduped)" }, { "side": "Other", "metric": "civ_killed", "label": "Civilians killed", "low": 1, "high": 1, "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "nClaims": 1, "basis": "per-event sum (deduped)", "text": "1 civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries) killed, claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers) (1 event(s), deduped)" }, { "side": "Other", "metric": "civ_wounded", "label": "Civilians wounded / injured", "low": 3, "high": 3, "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "nClaims": 1, "basis": "per-event sum (deduped)", "text": "3 civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries) wounded, claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources (1 event(s), deduped)" }, { "side": "Iran", "metric": "strike_events", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "nClaims": 1, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "text": "Iran / IRGC side: 1 — strike / attack events reported (deduped), claimed by US military / CENTCOM / US officials" } ], "sides": [ "USA", "Iran", "Other", "Unclear" ], "sideLabels": { "USA": "United States / partners", "Iran": "Iran / IRGC", "Other": "Other / commercial shipping & third parties", "Unclear": "Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable)" }, "totalsBySide": { "USA": { "side": "USA", "label": "United States / partners", "civLabel": "Civilians (US / partner states)", "rows": [ { "metric": "killed", "category": "Personnel", "label": "Personnel killed", "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "low": 3, "high": 3, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-15", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (statement; EST pin)", "lo": 3, "hi": 3, "refs": [ { "id": "x-2110780675238289548-centcom-three-false-iranian-claims-hormuz-control-pride", "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110780675238289548", "text": "CENTCOM says three US service members were killed in July." } ] } ] } ], "lossesSufferedBy": "USA", "civilianLine": "Civilians (US / partner states): no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.", "officialTallies": [] }, "Iran": { "side": "Iran", "label": "Iran / IRGC", "civLabel": "Civilians in Iran", "rows": [ { "metric": "equip:vehicles", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Vehicles / special equipment", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 2, "high": 2, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "lo": 2, "hi": 2, "refs": [ { "id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "text": "Iranian attacks sank two Emirati cargo vessels Oct 14 (WSJ)" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] } ], "lossesSufferedBy": "Iran", "civilianLine": "Civilians in Iran: no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.", "officialTallies": [] }, "Other": { "side": "Other", "label": "Other / commercial shipping & third parties", "civLabel": "Civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries)", "rows": [ { "metric": "civ_killed", "category": "Civilians", "label": "Civilians killed", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Near the Strait of Hormuz (EST — plotted at Sep 23 strike area off Oman; sinking position not stated)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "text": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Reuters (via gCaptain / Al-Monitor): Cape Dao sank close to the strait, weeks after being struck by a projectile on Sep 23 (one crew member killed then), per IMO data on Oct 14. Seatrade/Vanguard Tech: sinking followed an unsucc" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "civ_wounded", "category": "Civilians", "label": "Civilians wounded / injured", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 3, "high": 3, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Off Sirik / Sirik County coast, Hormozgan (EST; Bandar Kolahi mentioned in Fars)", "lo": 3, "hi": 3, "refs": [ { "id": "news-mehr-aa-1014-sirik-fishing-boat-unidentified-drone", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "text": "three fishermen injured, taken ashore" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:ships", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Ships / vessels", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "low": 19001.0, "high": 69000.0, "nClaims": 4, "nEvents": 2, "sourcesDisagree": true, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz — inbound transit (EST; no precise coords in warning)", "lo": 1, "hi": 50000.0, "refs": [ { "id": "news-ukmto-1014-warning-172-26-inbound-container-projectile", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_172-26.pdf", "text": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 172-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 50,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an inbound Strait of Hormuz transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1640 UTC" }, { "id": "news-ukmto-1013-warning-170-26-container-ship-projectile", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_170-26.pdf?rev=c6618d252aa94ec0bfe7cdb1eebf3f45", "text": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 170-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC)" }, { "id": "news-ukmto-1013-warning-171-26-tanker-projectile", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_171-26.pdf?rev=854e34710b3f4dfebe3fe985a479a145", "text": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 171-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC)" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz — outbound transit (EST; no precise coords in warning)", "lo": 19000.0, "hi": 19000.0, "refs": [ { "id": "news-ukmto-1014-warning-173-26-outbound-container-projectile", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_173-26.pdf", "text": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 173-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 19,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an outbound SoH transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1700 UTC" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:ships", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Ships / vessels", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 25.0, "high": 25.0, "nClaims": 2, "nEvents": 2, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Near the Strait of Hormuz (EST — plotted at Sep 23 strike area off Oman; sinking position not stated)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "text": "CTP-ISW Oct 14 (citing WSJ): two Emirati cargo vessels sank in the strait on Oct 14." } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "lo": 24.0, "hi": 24.0, "refs": [ { "id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "text": "Iran struck at least 24 vessels Sep 28–Oct 11" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:ships", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Ships / vessels", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Off Sirik / Sirik County coast, Hormozgan (EST; Bandar Kolahi mentioned in Fars)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-mehr-aa-1014-sirik-fishing-boat-unidentified-drone", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "text": "LIGHT 1:46pm MT Oct 14: Mehr + Anadolu Agency + Reuters (via Tasnim): Hormozgan provincial authorities said an unidentified drone struck a fishing boat off Sirik" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:energy", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Energy infrastructure (incidents)", "claimant": "Media report: Iran International", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-15", "loc": "Kuwait / Persian Gulf states (retrospective; EST pin Kuwait)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-reuters-ii-1015-iran-gulf-water-power-strikes-deliberate", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610154035", "text": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International summarised a Reuters investigation finding that Iran and its allies hit water plants, airports, refineries and a nuclear power station across the Persian Gulf with precision that rules out the official 'fallin" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:civilian_buildings", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Civilian buildings (incidents)", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Mehrestan, Sistan and Baluchestan (town pin, OSM geocode)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "text": "Press TV (X): a police officer and a Basij commander were killed in two terrorist attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan" }, { "id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "text": "IRNA headline: police officer killed in terrorist attack in southeastern Iran" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:civilian_buildings", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Civilian buildings (incidents)", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "text": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: CTP-ISW Iran Update Oct 14: recent waves of Iranian attacks indicate Iran retains the ability to effectively target vessels in/near Hormuz, having either overcome earlier operational constraints (after US strikes on coastal rada" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:civilian_buildings", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Civilian buildings (incidents)", "claimant": "US government (White House / State / Treasury)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-15", "loc": "Iran (report; no location — EST country pin)", "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "refs": [ { "id": "x-2110818858944565479-iranintl-cbs-moab-plans-iran-sites", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110818858944565479", "text": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International relayed a CBS News report, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the White House and Pentagon have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb (GBU-43/B) to hit military sites in Iran if or" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "low": 11, "high": 11, "nClaims": 15, "nEvents": 11, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 5, "high": 5, "nClaims": 5, "nEvents": 5, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Media report: CNA", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Media report: Iran International", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] } ], "lossesSufferedBy": "Other", "civilianLine": "Civilians / seafarers (commercial shipping & third countries): civilians killed 1 (claimed by Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers), 1 claim); civilians wounded / injured 3 (claimed by Iranian state / IRGC sources, 1 claim). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.", "officialTallies": [] }, "Unclear": { "side": "Unclear", "label": "Side unclear (target/victim not stated or not parseable)", "civLabel": "Civilians — side unclear", "rows": [ { "metric": "equip:drones", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Drones / UAVs", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 5.0, "high": 5.0, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "loc": "Dhahran, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia (EST)", "lo": 5.0, "hi": 5.0, "refs": [ { "id": "news-iranintl-1013-dhahran-aramco-hq-fire-saudi-energy-ministry", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "text": "Coalition says it intercepted 5 drones and 6 missiles targeting Riyadh, Dhahran and the south" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:missiles", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Missiles / guided bombs", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 6.0, "high": 6.0, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "loc": "Dhahran, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia (EST)", "lo": 6.0, "hi": 6.0, "refs": [ { "id": "news-iranintl-1013-dhahran-aramco-hq-fire-saudi-energy-ministry", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "text": "Coalition says it intercepted 5 drones and 6 missiles targeting Riyadh, Dhahran and the south" } ] } ] }, { "metric": "equip:vehicles", "category": "Equipment / infrastructure", "label": "Vehicles / special equipment", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 2, "high": 2, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Near the Strait of Hormuz (EST — plotted at Sep 23 strike area off Oman; sinking position not stated)", "lo": 2, "hi": 2, "refs": [ { "id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "text": "CTP-ISW Oct 14 (citing WSJ): two Emirati cargo vessels sank in the strait on Oct 14." } ] } ] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 4, "high": 4, "nClaims": 5, "nEvents": 4, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "low": 2, "high": 2, "nClaims": 2, "nEvents": 2, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "strike_events", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Strike / attack events reported (deduped)", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "low": 1, "high": 1, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "count of strike/attack claim records against this side, deduped by UTC day + ~10 km area", "events": [] }, { "metric": "mun:ground_attacks", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Launched against: Ground attacks / engagements", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "low": 18, "high": 18, "nClaims": 2, "nEvents": 2, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-15", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "lo": 8, "hi": 8, "refs": [ { "id": "news-jmic-105-1015-mine-claim-unsubstantiated-hormuz-severe", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-15-october.pdf?rev=ae23f6713bc24322b5f58190a6923b58", "text": "eight unknown-projectile attacks (UKMTO 166–173-26) on Oct 11 and Oct 13" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman (EST)", "lo": 10, "hi": 10, "refs": [ { "id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "text": "ten of the attacks were in the Strait of Hormuz." } ] } ] }, { "metric": "mun:ground_attacks", "category": "Strikes launched against", "label": "Launched against: Ground attacks / engagements", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "low": 2, "high": 2, "nClaims": 1, "nEvents": 1, "sourcesDisagree": false, "basis": "per-event sum; repeat reports of one event (same UTC day, ~10 km area, claimant) counted once; range = lowest–highest figure per event", "events": [ { "date": "2026-10-14", "loc": "Mehrestan, Sistan and Baluchestan (town pin, OSM geocode)", "lo": 2, "hi": 2, "refs": [ { "id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "text": "Press TV (X): a police officer and a Basij commander were killed in two terrorist attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan" } ] } ] } ], "lossesSufferedBy": "Unclear", "civilianLine": "Civilians — side unclear: no per-event civilian casualty figures were stated in this week’s claim records for this side (data missing — not evidence of zero). CLAIMED, UNVERIFIED.", "officialTallies": [] } }, "totalsNote": "totalsBySide[side] = losses SUFFERED by that side (target/victim parsed from claim text + claimant), credited to the claimant; 'Unclear' = victim side not determinable. Not based on the map's claim side tags.", "officialTallies": [], "components": [], "aggregates": [ { "claim_id": "news-aj-1014-iran-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-oil-flows", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 15.0, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "earlier event (before window)", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again", "clause": "UKMTO recorded 15 attacks Oct 6–14 (11 in past four days)" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-gfs-pride-sinks-projectile-hormuz", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/container-ship-sinks-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectile-sources-say/", "clause": "second vessel sunk since Feb 28 war start per IMO data" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "clause": "Reuters/IMO: GFS Pride and Cape Dao are the 2nd and 3rd vessels sunk since the war began Feb 28. WaPo and Guardian also report the bulk carrier sank Wednesday" }, { "claim_id": "news-lloyds-1015-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-monthly-high", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158715/Hormuz-ship-attacks-hit-record-as-Iran-broadens-campaign-against-commercial-shipping", "clause": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Lloyd's List reported that Iran's escalating campaign against commercial shipping has pushed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz to a record monthly high, with a widening range of vessels targeted." }, { "claim_id": "news-bbc-verify-1016-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-weekly-high", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 12.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO incident reports said ship-attack reports near Hormuz hit a record weekly high (12 vessels between 5 and 11 October), with four further reported attacks so far this week, and Kpler showing ~12.6 mill" }, { "claim_id": "news-bbc-verify-1016-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-weekly-high", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 4, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO incident reports said ship-attack reports near Hormuz hit a record weekly high (12 vessels between 5 and 11 October), with four further reported attacks so far this week, and Kpler showing ~12.6 mill" }, { "claim_id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 12.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported UKMTO said Friday that 12 attacks on vessels were reported over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with one vessel lost" }, { "claim_id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported UKMTO said Friday that 12 attacks on vessels were reported over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with one vessel lost" } ], "territory": { "layer": { "baseline": [ "2026-10-09T02:02:00Z", "/workspace/claim-maps-reports/snapshots/iran-usa/2026-10-09" ], "nSnapshots": 1, "terrChanges": [], "newUnits": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-irn-nezaja-border-deploy", "name": "Iran Army Ground Force (NEZAJA) — 50+ border units (claimed; cmdr Ali Jahanshahi)", "side": "Iran", "loc": "Makran coast / Iran border belts (EST — commander claim, no positions given)", "echelon": "formation", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248460/Over-50-combat-support-units-deployed-along-Iran-s-borders", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-ship-petro-dolphin-sohar", "name": "MT Petro Dolphin (Nicaragua-flag product tanker, drone-hit at Sohar anchorage)", "side": "Other", "loc": "Sohar anchorage, Oman (EST — no position published)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/two-tankers-attacked-near-strait-of-hormuz-and-oman-two-indian-seafarers-missing/", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-ship-valthera-hormuz", "name": "MT Valthera (Marshall Islands-flag tanker, projectile hit in Hormuz, fire)", "side": "Other", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — no position published)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/two-tankers-attacked-near-strait-of-hormuz-and-oman-two-indian-seafarers-missing/", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-ship-al-maqam-hormuz", "name": "VLCC Al Maqam (UAE-owned, IMO 9732577 — IRGC claims strike)", "side": "Other", "loc": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — no position published)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://maritime-executive.com/article/ukmto-reports-third-strike-in-a-day-on-a-tanker-in-the-mideast", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-uk-rfa-lyme-bay", "name": "RFA Lyme Bay (L3007) — UK mine-countermeasures mothership (only RN presence near Hormuz per USNI)", "side": "Other", "loc": "Indian Ocean approaches to Hormuz (EST — exact position not published)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/12/u-k-royal-navy-destroyer-returns-home-from-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-multinational-mission-in-limbo", "status": "corroborated" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-nl-hnlms-evertsen-fhq", "name": "HNLMS Evertsen (F805) — Dutch frigate hosting Hormuz multinational mission forward HQ (mission in limbo)", "side": "Other", "loc": "Middle East / Gulf of Oman–Arabian Sea area (EST — position not published)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/12/u-k-royal-navy-destroyer-returns-home-from-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-multinational-mission-in-limbo", "status": "corroborated" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-irn-artesh-navy", "name": "Iran Army Navy (Artesh Navy / IRIN) — eastern Hormuz / Gulf of Oman / Arabian Sea deployment (EST)", "side": "Iran", "loc": "Eastern Hormuz / Gulf of Oman approaches (EST — Artesh Navy claims new deployment; no published positions)", "echelon": "command", "url": "https://x.com/PressTV/status/2111047656391037256", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-carl-levin-ddg120", "name": "USS Carl M. Levin (DDG-120)", "side": "USA", "loc": "Arabian Sea / regional waters (EST — USNI Oct 13, independent deployer)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-mustin-ddg89", "name": "USS Mustin (DDG-89)", "side": "USA", "loc": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-wayne-e-meyer-ddg108", "name": "USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG-108)", "side": "USA", "loc": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-jason-dunham-ddg109", "name": "USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109)", "side": "USA", "loc": "Red Sea (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-gonzalez-ddg66", "name": "USS Gonzalez (DDG-66)", "side": "USA", "loc": "Red Sea (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "echelon": "ship", "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "status": "not_verified" } ], "movedUnits": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-cvn77", "name": "USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Off Phuket, Thailand (EST — port visit in Seventh Fleet area; US official says it will return to CENTCOM)", "to": "Arabian Sea (EST — CENTCOM Oct 15: Bush patrols Arabian Sea after Thailand visit)", "km": 3968, "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1kvrobife" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-princeton", "name": "USS Princeton (CG-59)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Arabian Sea — IAMD with GHW Bush CSG (estimated)", "to": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13; exact area not stated)", "km": 1204, "url": "https://www.twz.com/sea/where-are-the-american-aircraft-carriers-september-9-2026" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-ross", "name": "USS Ross (DDG-71)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Arabian Sea (EST — USNI Oct 5; Bush CSG escort left behind)", "to": "Arabian Sea — Bush CSG (EST, USNI Oct 13)", "km": 20, "url": "https://www.twz.com/sea/where-are-the-american-aircraft-carriers-september-9-2026" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-donald-cook", "name": "USS Donald Cook (DDG-75)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Arabian Sea (EST — USNI Oct 5; Bush CSG escort left behind)", "to": "Arabian Sea — Bush CSG (EST, USNI Oct 13)", "km": 8, "url": "https://www.twz.com/sea/where-are-the-american-aircraft-carriers-september-9-2026" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-ddg119", "name": "USS Delbert D. Black (DDG-119)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Phuket, Thailand — port visit with Bush CSG (EST)", "to": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13; exact area not stated)", "km": 2354, "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/us-destroys-five-iranian-tankers-iran-retaliates-with-attacks-on-jordan-base" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-cvn71", "name": "USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)", "side": "USA", "frm": "En route CENTCOM AOR (EST — TR CSG inbound; Cheung/Iran Intl >7k sailors theme)", "to": "Western Pacific, 7th Fleet — transiting westward (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 6740, "url": "https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1kvrobife" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-makin-island", "name": "USS Makin Island ARG / 13th MEU", "side": "USA", "frm": "En route CENTCOM AOR (EST — Makin ARG ~2k Marines theme)", "to": "Central Pacific west of Hawaii (EST — USNI Oct 13: left Pearl Harbor Oct 12)", "km": 12463, "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-us-more-firepower-will-not-end-mid-east-war" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-anchorage-lpd23", "name": "USS Anchorage (LPD-23) — Makin Island ARG", "side": "USA", "frm": "EST Pacific–Indian Ocean transit with Makin Island ARG (destination unconfirmed per Stripes)", "to": "Central Pacific with Makin Island ARG (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 10665, "url": "https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-october-2-2026/" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-john-p-murtha-lpd26", "name": "USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26) — Makin Island ARG", "side": "USA", "frm": "EST with Makin Island ARG transit (LPD-26)", "to": "Central Pacific with Makin Island ARG (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 10728, "url": "https://www.newarab.com/news/oil-tankers-attacked-hormuz-smoke-seen-near-aramco-riyadh" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-chosin-cg65", "name": "USS Chosin (CG-65) — Theodore Roosevelt CSG", "side": "USA", "frm": "EST with TR CSG transit toward Middle East (AP/Fortune: deployed with TR)", "to": "Western Pacific with TR CSG (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 6732, "url": "https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-october-2-2026/" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-higgins-ddg76", "name": "USS Higgins (DDG-76)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Arabian Sea / regional waters (EST — USNI Oct 5, independent deployer)", "to": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 1278, "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/05/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-5-2026" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z", "id": "unit-usa-michael-murphy-ddg112", "name": "USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112)", "side": "USA", "frm": "Arabian Sea / regional waters (EST — USNI Oct 5, independent deployer)", "to": "Indian Ocean (EST — USNI Oct 13)", "km": 1866, "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/05/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-5-2026" } ], "terrFeatures": 8, "terrRefreshed": 8, "terrRefreshedNames": [ "EST Iran-held Hormozgan coast / Bandar Abbas–Qeshm–Jask approaches", "EST contested Strait of Hormuz maritime corridor", "EST southern Hormuz / Omani-side corridor (US-challenged route theme)", "EST Iran-held Qeshm–Larak island approaches (after reported strike themes)", "EST reported US/partner basing presence — Bahrain (5th Fleet area) (NOT US sovereign territory)", "EST reported US/partner basing presence — Al Udeid / Qatar (NOT US sovereign territory)", "EST reported US/partner basing presence — Al Dhafra / UAE (NOT US sovereign territory)", "EST reported US/partner basing presence — Camp Arifjan / Kuwait (NOT US sovereign territory)" ], "unitsTotal": 176, "unitsRefreshed": 48, "terrGeneratedAt": "2026-10-16T14:00:00Z" }, "claims": [] }, "strikesLog": [ { "date": "2026-10-13", "areas": [ { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T19:07:28Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "naval", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Cdr Ali Ozmaei)", "summary": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): Mehr: IRGC Navy Commander Gen. Ali Ozmaei (first televised interview) rejects US claim that Hormuz is open/under US control; says if US wants to know who controls it they must come to the field; warns US warships not to approach or they will be sunk; claims US carrier acts like a runway 700–800 km from the strait; says IRGCN controls Hormuz/Persian Gulf and Artesh Navy the Sea of Oman; smart control = vessels need IRGC permission.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248568/If-US-ships-approach-Hormuz-Strait-we-will-sink-them", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T19:30:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Anadolu Agency (AA) citing UKMTO", "summary": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): Anadolu Agency relays UKMTO's two Oct 13 warnings: a container ship and a tanker were each struck by unknown projectiles in separate Hormuz incidents; times unconfirmed; vessels not identified.", "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/container-ship-tanker-struck-by-unknown-projectiles-in-strait-of-hormuz-uk-maritime-agency/4087813", "status": "corroborated" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T20:40:24Z", "side": "USA", "type": "naval", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "summary": "Evening ~7:46pm MT Oct 13 FULL: CENTCOM X post rebutting IRGC Navy commander Ozmaei's claim that Hormuz is under IRGC control and approaching US warships would be sunk; CENTCOM says American forces and regional partners clearly control the strait and US forces helped Gulf partners ship more than 19 million barrels of crude through it on Oct 12. Also reported by Gulf News / Iran International.", "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110108416077123910", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — no precise coords in warning)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T19:03:39Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 170-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "summary": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 170-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC). Authorities investigating; vessels advised to transit with caution.", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_170-26.pdf?rev=c6618d252aa94ec0bfe7cdb1eebf3f45", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T19:06:28Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 171-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "summary": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 171-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC). Separate from 170-26 container-ship notice.", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_171-26.pdf?rev=854e34710b3f4dfebe3fe985a479a145", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Eastern Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T14:38:05Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations)", "summary": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): Mehr (Iran Army Navy PR): this afternoon a law-breaking tanker that turned off navigation systems and tried to pass a restricted area was identified damaged and burning in the eastern Strait of Hormuz; Navy cites new arrangement/deployment of operational units in eastern Hormuz, Arabian Sea and Sea of Oman with real-time surveillance. Corroborated by Press TV, AA, WANA. Morning X relay attributed similar text to IRGC Navy — Mehr/PressTV attribute to Artesh Navy.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248563/Yet-another-oil-tanker-burns-in-flames-in-Strait-of-Hormuz", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz — inbound transit (EST; no precise coords in warning)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T16:40:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 172-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 172-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 50,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an inbound Strait of Hormuz transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1640 UTC; vessel reports minor damage, no casualties, continued on passage. Posted by @UK_MTO 10:17Z Oct 14. Distinct from 170/171.", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_172-26.pdf", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz — outbound transit (EST; no precise coords in warning)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T17:00:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 173-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 173-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 19,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an outbound SoH transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1700 UTC; vessel reports minor damage, no casualties, continued on passage. Posted by @UK_MTO 10:23Z Oct 14. Distinct from 170/171/172.", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_173-26.pdf", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Dhahran, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T23:35:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "strike", "handle": "Iran International (Reuters source; Saudi Energy Ministry)", "summary": "Evening ~7:46pm MT Oct 13 FULL: Iran International / Reuters source: loud explosions near Saudi Aramco HQ in Dhahran and a fire after a missile attack; unclear if direct hit or debris; Saudi Energy Ministry says fire limited to an administrative building, no injuries. Coalition says it intercepted 5 drones and 6 missiles targeting Riyadh, Dhahran and the south. Houthi spokesman had warned civilians to evacuate; Houthis had not claimed the Dhahran strike per CTP-ISW. Trump links Houthi attacks to Iran.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "status": "news_report" } ] }, { "area": "Persian Gulf / Hormuz exports (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-13T23:53:54Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (citing @TankerTrackers)", "summary": "Evening ~7:46pm MT Oct 13 FULL: Iran International relaying TankerTrackers: combined crude exports from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman rose to 17.273 million bpd in October (up from 14.652M), amid escalating attacks on shipping; TankerTrackers notes figure includes Oman.", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110157108125852073", "status": "news_report" } ] } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "areas": [ { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T11:16:21Z", "side": "Other", "type": "naval", "handle": "Al Jazeera (Priyanka Shankar) citing UKMTO/Kpler/Reuters/Press TV", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Al Jazeera wrap: Iran expanded Hormuz surveillance (Press TV Tuesday Artesh Navy unit deployment already on map); UKMTO recorded 15 attacks Oct 6–14 (11 in past four days); Kpler: only 2.9M barrels through Hormuz Oct 11 vs ~20.8M Oct 8; relays Reuters spotter-dhow and CENTCOM 19M-bbl rebuttal. Useful aggregate context; primary vessel events ingested separately.", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again", "status": "corroborated" }, { "ts": "2026-10-14T12:26:15Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "naval", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Chief Ali Ozmaei)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Mehr: IRGC Navy Chief Gen. Ali Ozmaei warns violating vessels in Hormuz; says forces 'do not shy away from dealing with any violating vessels'; 'If the Americans want to see whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed, let them enter the violated route'; 'We will deal with violating vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.' Continues Oct 13 control/sink-US-ships rhetoric already on map.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248591/Iran-not-shy-away-from-dealing-with-violating-vessels", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — MPA did not publish precise coords)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T06:00:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "CNA citing Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (via CNA): Singapore-registered GFS Giselle struck by unknown projectile while transiting Strait of Hormuz on Oct 14 (Singapore time); hull damage but continued under own propulsion to safe anchorage; all 22 crew safe, no injuries; no Singaporeans among crew. Separate from GFS Pride sinking.", "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/vessels-singapore-registered-struck-strait-hormuz-6459176", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Off Sirik / Sirik County coast, Hormozgan (EST; Bandar Kolahi mentioned in Fars)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T08:30:00Z", "side": "Unknown", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Mehr News; Anadolu Agency; Reuters via Tasnim", "summary": "LIGHT 1:46pm MT Oct 14: Mehr + Anadolu Agency + Reuters (via Tasnim): Hormozgan provincial authorities said an unidentified drone struck a fishing boat off Sirik; three fishermen injured, taken ashore; no fatalities in initial reports. AA: drone source not yet identified. Mehr quotes Deputy Governor Ahmad Nafisi describing it as a US drone attack; Reuters notes Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed who was responsible. New coastal incident area vs morning FULL.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Waters south of the Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T09:28:04Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Public Relations)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Mehr (IRGC Navy PR): a container carrier carrying more than 2,500 containers sank Wednesday morning in waters south of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine and catching fire; vessel allegedly using unauthorized/high-risk route; IRGC Navy warns local vessels/fishermen about floating containers. Also relayed by Iran International and Press TV X. Correlates in time/place with Reuters/MPA GFS Pride sinking but mechanism (mine vs projectile) and naming differ — treat as party claim, not confirmed identity match.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248588/Container-carrier-sinks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-after-explosion", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz approaches (EST — exact dhow position not published)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "side": "USA", "type": "naval", "handle": "Reuters via Al-Monitor (Hafezi/Saul/Stewart)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Reuters (via Al-Monitor): two senior Iranian officials say Tehran adopted new offensive tactics ~10 days ago to keep oil prices high and influence US midterms, aiming toward 'complete closure' of Hormuz and expanding ops to Gulf of Oman and beyond. Anonymous US military official confirms IRGC now uses unarmed spotters in small boats/dhows after radar losses; last week US forces confronted a spotter dhow, ordered occupants to abandon ship, then destroyed it (no casualties). Also summarized by Al Jazeera.", "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-shifting-tactics-step-attacks-shipping-us-vote-officials-say", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz, outbound lane (EST — no position published)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "side": "Unknown", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Seatrade Maritime (Gary Howard) citing Vanguard Tech", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Seatrade Maritime: Vanguard Tech identified the three container ships in UKMTO's Oct 13 warnings as GFS Pride, GFS Giselle and Al Saadiyat, and the tanker as Alfonso. Al Saadiyat has no significant damage or casualties reported after being attacked during an outbound transit (consistent with UKMTO 173-26 outbound container ship, minor damage).", "url": "https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/iran-claims-mine-sank-container-ship-amid-fresh-hormuz-attacks%250a", "status": "not_verified" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — no position published)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "side": "Unknown", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Seatrade Maritime (Gary Howard) citing Vanguard Tech", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Seatrade Maritime: Vanguard Tech identified the tanker in UKMTO's Oct 13 warnings as Alfonso; its status is unclear. Alfonso is on the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) non-compliance list — Iran's blacklist of vessels it says violated its Hormuz rules (restrictions, fines, detention or confiscation).", "url": "https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/iran-claims-mine-sank-container-ship-amid-fresh-hormuz-attacks%250a", "status": "not_verified" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz ~4 nm NW Ras Shaykh Masud (NAVAREA IX 373/26: 26-16.80N 056-08.60E)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T12:50:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Reuters via gCaptain; CNA/MPA Singapore; NAVAREA IX 373/26", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Reuters (via gCaptain): Singapore-flagged GFS Pride container ship (~2,824 TEU) sank near the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by a projectile; UAE-based manager GFS Ship Management FZE not immediately reached. CNA/MPA Singapore: struck Oct 13 (Singapore time), damage and fire then sank; all 21 crew safely evacuated, no injuries; second vessel sunk since Feb 28 war start per IMO data. NAVAREA IX 373/26 warns floating containers at 26-16.80N 056-08.60E. IRGC Navy (Mehr) separately claims a 2,500+ container carrier sank after hitting a naval mine — attribution/mechanism differ; not merged as one verified cause.", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/container-ship-sinks-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectile-sources-say/", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz / regional waters (EST — statement, not a new kinetic pin)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T14:11:25Z", "side": "USA", "type": "naval", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "summary": "LIGHT 1:46pm MT Oct 14: @CENTCOM (14:11Z) rejects Iranian IMO ambassador claim that US forces use threatening/abusive language against Iranian mariners. CENTCOM: blockade in place for months and professionally communicated; 'The only country attacking civilian mariners transiting regional waters is Iran'; commercial traffic continues with US/partner protection. Also summarized by Dawn / Iran International.", "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110372911378829540", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "GFS Pride sinking area ~4 nm NW Ras Shaykh Masud, Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T16:25:00Z", "side": "USA", "type": "strike", "handle": "ABC News (Steve Beynon) — unnamed US official", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: ABC News live (12:25pm EDT): a US official said Iran lied about the cargo ship that sank Wednesday and that Iran attacked it, likely with a missile — directly contradicting the IRGC Navy statement (Mehr/Tasnim/Sepah News) that the container carrier sank after hitting a naval mine on an 'unauthorized' route. MPA Singapore says GFS Pride was struck by an unknown projectile. Marisks: no independent evidence of a mine (CNBC).", "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-trump-us-attack-iran-ahead/?id=137063637", "status": "contradicted" } ] }, { "area": "Near the Strait of Hormuz (EST — plotted at Sep 23 strike area off Oman; sinking position not stated)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T17:22:39Z", "side": "Unknown", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Reuters via gCaptain; Seatrade Maritime (Vanguard Tech); Washington Post", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Reuters (via gCaptain / Al-Monitor): Cape Dao sank close to the strait, weeks after being struck by a projectile on Sep 23 (one crew member killed then), per IMO data on Oct 14. Seatrade/Vanguard Tech: sinking followed an unsuccessful rescue attempt. Reuters/IMO: GFS Pride and Cape Dao are the 2nd and 3rd vessels sunk since the war began Feb 28. WaPo and Guardian also report the bulk carrier sank Wednesday. CTP-ISW Oct 14 (citing WSJ): two Emirati cargo vessels sank in the strait on Oct 14.", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Gulf of Oman (EST — CENTCOM did not publish precise coords)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T19:41:18Z", "side": "USA", "type": "strike", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "summary": "LIGHT 1:46pm MT Oct 14: @CENTCOM (19:41Z) officially states that on Oct 6 US forces destroyed an Iranian-affiliated dhow conducting surveillance and targeting US Navy ships in the Gulf of Oman; crew safely removed prior to destruction; repatriation ongoing. Also asserts IRGC has indiscriminately targeted civilian mariners over past seven months. Corroborates earlier anonymous US official account in morning Al-Monitor/Reuters item with named date and Gulf of Oman theatre.", "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110455930559086927", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST — statement, not a new kinetic pin)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T21:17:20Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "naval", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Iranian state media)", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Iran International (relaying Iranian state media): IRGC spokesperson Mohebi said attacks on ships Iran considers in violation of its restrictions were neither arbitrary nor uncoordinated, and were a response to what Tehran calls a third US breach of commitments after the MoU was signed; Iran's armed forces act only via the chain of command. Iran International separately reports Mohebi said Washington could launch new attacks before the November midterms.", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110480096691949650", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-14T23:00:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "naval", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update, October 14, 2026 (criticalthreats.org)", "summary": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: CTP-ISW Iran Update Oct 14: recent waves of Iranian attacks indicate Iran retains the ability to effectively target vessels in/near Hormuz, having either overcome earlier operational constraints (after US strikes on coastal radars) or adapted via new tactics (small-boat spotters per US official to Reuters). Iran struck at least 24 vessels Sep 28–Oct 11; UKMTO reported at least seven incidents Oct 12–14; Iranian attacks sank two Emirati cargo vessels Oct 14 (WSJ). Iran may have partially reconstituted maritime targeting. US and partner military operations: nothing significant; US-Iran negotiations: nothing significant.", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "status": "corroborated" } ] } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "areas": [ { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (assessment)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T13:00:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "JMIC Update 105 Advisory Note, 15 October (PDF via UKMTO / @UK_MTO)", "summary": "Midday LIGHT ~1:46pm MT Oct 15: JMIC Update 105 (ICOD 151300 UTC; posted by @UK_MTO 14:42Z): Hormuz threat SEVERE; eight unknown-projectile attacks (UKMTO 166–173-26) on Oct 11 and Oct 13; GFS Pride sank Oct 14; IRGC harassment (UAV overflight, surveillance, VHF hailing) persisted; IRGC mine claim unsubstantiated; US NCAGS ~30 assisted transits/day (121 over 96h) vs single digits per independent tracking. Gulf of Oman: one attack (PETRO DOLPHIN, 165-26); CAPE DAO status disputed but 'not sunk'; blockade enforcement continues, no new CENTCOM enforcement action announced; threat MODERATE. Arabian Gulf: no confirmed attacks, MODERATE. 149 incidents since 1 March.", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-15-october.pdf?rev=ae23f6713bc24322b5f58190a6923b58", "status": "corroborated" }, { "ts": "2026-10-15T19:29:54Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Lloyd's List", "summary": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Lloyd's List reported that Iran's escalating campaign against commercial shipping has pushed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz to a record monthly high, with a widening range of vessels targeted.", "url": "https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158715/Hormuz-ship-attacks-hit-record-as-Iran-broadens-campaign-against-commercial-shipping", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T07:28:07Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "blockade", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari); Press TV; ISNA", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 15: Mehr + Press TV + ISNA: Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari (Army Chief of Staff / Deputy Coordinator) says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and any passage must be coordinated; cites rising US gasoline prices as proof. Describes posture: IRGC Navy firmly positioned west of Hormuz; Army present with authority from east of the strait to north of the Sea of Oman. Warns otherwise 'you see in the news what happens.' Continues long-running closed-strait theme; new Oct 15 official restatement with east/west force split.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248602/Strait-of-Hormuz-closed-transit-must-be-coordinated", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "GFS Pride sinking — ~4 nm NW Ras Shaykh Masud (Hormuz) (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T09:03:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "The National (citing Marisks; Singapore MPA; IRGC)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 15: The National (updated Oct 15): Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank after unidentified projectile strike; all 21 crew evacuated safely (Singapore MPA). IRGC claimed naval mine on 'unauthorised' route; maritime security firm Marisks found no independent evidence supporting a mine and described Iran's claims as consistent with a psychological operations campaign. Unverified social posts alleged cargo looting; National notes footage unverified / AI images circulated. Wrap of Oct 13–14 Pride incident with new Marisks assessment.", "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/15/fire-sinking-and-reported-scramble-for-cargo-what-we-know-about-ship-lost-in-strait-of-hormuz/", "status": "contradicted" } ] }, { "area": "Kuwait / Persian Gulf states (retrospective; EST pin Kuwait)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T11:39:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "strike", "handle": "Iran International (relaying Reuters investigation)", "summary": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International summarised a Reuters investigation finding that Iran and its allies hit water plants, airports, refineries and a nuclear power station across the Persian Gulf with precision that rules out the official 'falling debris' explanation; Iran hit at least four of Kuwait's eight combined power and desalination plants between March 2 and July 20.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610154035", "status": "not_verified" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (claim; no location given — EST pin)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T13:00:00Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "strike", "handle": "Fox News Digital live (relaying pro-IRGC Telegram post)", "summary": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Fox News live coverage reported that a pro-IRGC media outlet claimed in a public Telegram post that missiles struck several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, describing them as 'rogue' ships, with no details on the ships, location, casualties or damage.", "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-peace-donald-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-prices-midterms-october-15", "status": "not_verified" } ] }, { "area": "Sea of Oman, east of the Strait of Hormuz (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T13:06:39Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations); @PressTV", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 15: Mehr (Iran Army Navy PR): a violating oil tanker that had switched off its tracking systems caught fire in a prohibited zone in the Sea of Oman, east of the Strait of Hormuz; monitoring teams detected it while on patrol controlling the east of the strait. Army says Hormuz is under full control/surveillance of Artesh forces and IRGC Navy. Also carried by Press TV X (@PressTV 12:58Z) and OSINT aggregators. Distinct from Oct 13 eastern-Hormuz tanker-fire claim (248563). Vessel unnamed; cause of fire not stated by Navy.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248608/Violating-oil-tanker-catches-fire-in-Sea-of-Oman", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (statement; EST pin)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-15T22:18:20Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "blockade", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Iranian state media)", "summary": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International reported that Iran's army chief Amir Hatami said on Thursday, per state media, that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until what he called the rights of the Iranian people are respected.", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110857835064246778", "status": "official_statement" } ] } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "areas": [ { "area": "Strait of Hormuz approaches (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T05:00:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "BBC Verify", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO incident reports said ship-attack reports near Hormuz hit a record weekly high (12 vessels between 5 and 11 October), with four further reported attacks so far this week, and Kpler showing ~12.6 million bpd through the strait on 13 October.", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Gulf of Oman / US blockade zone approaches (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T10:00:00Z", "side": "USA", "type": "blockade", "handle": "Reuters (via Al-Monitor); also Iran International", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Reuters reporting (Al-Monitor / Iran International) said Iran exported some LPG (UANI: ≥8 gas tankers / ~4.1m barrels since mid-July) and jet fuel to Myanmar despite the US naval blockade, while CENTCOM called the blockade ironclad and Kpler showed Iranian crude exports at zero in September.", "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/exclusive-iran-ships-some-lpg-jet-fuel-despite-us-blockade-data-shows", "status": "corroborated" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz (statement; EST pin)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T11:04:23Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "blockade", "handle": "@PressTV (relaying Artesh spokesman Akraminia)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Press TV relayed Iranian Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia on X saying if the US leaves the region the Strait of Hormuz will reopen with regional collective security, and if it does not leave, Iran will expel it.", "url": "https://x.com/PressTV/status/2111050616654942519", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Eastern Strait of Hormuz / Gulf of Oman approaches (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T12:12:06Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Mehr reported Iran's Army Navy said surveillance teams detected a violating oil tanker that had caught fire in a restricted/unauthorized zone east of the Strait of Hormuz after switching off tracking systems. Cause of fire not stated; vessel unnamed. Related Press TV / Iran International relays same morning.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248625/Iran-Army-Navy-identifies-violating-oil-tanker-in-east-Hormuz", "status": "official_statement" } ] }, { "area": "Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman (EST)", "items": [ { "ts": "2026-10-16T13:02:18Z", "side": "Other", "type": "civilian_vessel", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying UKMTO)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported UKMTO said Friday that 12 attacks on vessels were reported over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with one vessel lost; ten of the attacks were in the Strait of Hormuz.", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "status": "corroborated" } ] } ] } ], "diplomacy": [ { "ts": "2026-10-10T11:56:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "other", "handle": "Iran International", "summary": "Morning ~7:50am MT Oct 10 FULL-STACK: Qatar told the UNGA First Committee that Iranian ballistic-missile, cruise-missile and drone attacks since Feb 28 violated its sovereignty and that of other regional states, citing UNSC Resolution 2817 on freedom of navigation, while stressing de-escalation and diplomacy.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610104268", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "Reuters (via Iran Times reprint) citing Iranian state media", "summary": "Midday ~12:00pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK: Reuters: SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the US response to Iran's seven conditions for reopening Hormuz was insufficient, Iran is \"no longer in the process of responding to the Americans\", and Hormuz will not open and no negotiations take place until conditions are met.", "url": "https://www.irantimes.com/news/iran-says-us-response-to-its-proposal-to-reopen-hormuz-was-insufficient", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-12T01:42:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "other", "handle": "The National (UAE) citing Anwar Gargash on X", "summary": "Evening ~7:55pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK (catch-up): UAE presidential diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash posted on X that since the start of the aggression against Gulf Arab states all are targeted, that attacks on Saudi Arabia undermine UAE and Gulf security, and called for revitalized joint Gulf security and defence action.", "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/12/gargash-calls-for-stronger-gulf-security-and-collective-defence/", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-12T14:53:21Z", "side": "Other", "type": "other", "handle": "Iran International citing UK Prime Minister in parliament", "summary": "Midday ~12:00pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK: British PM Andy Burnham told parliament the suspected plot targeting RAF Fairford was highly likely coordinated in Iran and almost certainly IRGC-directed; UK sanctioned two Iranians and summoned Iran's ambassador; Iran International reports 29 countries backed the attribution and the US and allies condemned Iran.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610120644", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-12T17:07:00Z", "side": "USA", "type": "other", "handle": "US State Department, Office of the Spokesman (Oct 12, 2026)", "summary": "Evening ~7:55pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK: State Department released a joint statement by the US, UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and 24 European governments condemning Iran's lethal plotting, arson, sabotage and cyber-attacks, recognizing the UK's attribution of Iran's involvement in the 27 Sept RAF Fairford incident, and pledging to identify, investigate, disrupt and prosecute hostile actors.", "url": "https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/joint-statement-on-the-united-kingdoms-attribution-of-irans-involvement-in-attempted-terrorist-attack-at-raf-fairford/", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-12T19:06:00Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "Iran International liveblog (Oct 12, 20:06 GMT+1)", "summary": "Late-afternoon ~4:00pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK: Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi to Al Araby TV: US violated Islamabad MoU commitments; Iran cannot be expected to show more flexibility.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202610105959", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T03:41:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "other", "handle": "Kuwait Times / KUNA (Kuwait statement to UNGA Second Committee)", "summary": "Morning ~8:07am MT Oct 13 FULL-STACK: KUNA via Kuwait Times: Kuwaiti diplomat Abdullah Bousakhar renewed condemnation of Iranian attacks on Kuwaiti territory, called for full implementation of UNSC Resolution 2817 and for Iran to stop all acts obstructing transit passage in Hormuz or threatening Bab al-Mandab.", "url": "https://kuwaittimes.com/article/51496/kuwait/kuwait-condemns-iranian-attacks-at-un-warns-shipping-disruption-threatens-development/", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T07:03:55Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "Iran International citing The Wall Street Journal (Oct 13, 2026)", "summary": "Morning ~8:07am MT Oct 13 FULL-STACK: Iran International citing the Wall Street Journal: unnamed Iranian officials privately suggested Tehran could send forces into neighbouring countries if the US launches new strikes; warned Arab officials Saudi oil facilities could be targeted; told mediators it could try to sink US warships. Countries/timing not specified.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610138563", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T12:21:18Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "Mehr News Agency / Tasnim (Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi via RIA Novosti)", "summary": "Morning ~8:07am MT Oct 13 FULL-STACK: Mehr/Tasnim: Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi told RIA Novosti that if the US resumes military aggression, consequences will reach beyond the region; US knows Iran's conditions and Iran will take reciprocal steps once they are met.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248562/If-Iran-attacked-consequences-to-be-extended-beyond-region", "status": "official_statement" }, { "ts": "2026-10-13T23:00:00Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update (Oct 13, 2026)", "summary": "Evening ~7:46pm MT Oct 13 FULL: CTP-ISW Iran Update Oct 13: Iranian officials warned Arab officials/mediators (WSJ) they would 'more aggressively' target US forces and naval vessels and regional energy (incl. Saudi oil) if conflict resumes; reported IRGC tests of 30+ Emad / Kheibar Shekan missiles Oct 11 (Tehran, Alborz, central Iran), Shahed-136 launches (Kashan), SAM launches (Esfahan, Yazd, Damavand) and the Jaljaleh anti-aircraft mine system; CTP-ISW unable to verify tests. 'US and Partner Military Operations: Nothing significant to report.'", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-13-2026", "status": "analysis" }, { "ts": "2026-10-15T23:00:00Z", "side": "Iran", "type": "other", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update (criticalthreats.org)", "summary": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: CTP-ISW's Oct 15 Iran Update reported, citing unspecified Lebanese military sources speaking to Emirati media, that Iran instructed Hezbollah to prepare to participate in an 'imminent' regional conflict with the US and Israel and raise readiness to 'advanced levels'. Its US/partner military operations, Iranian strike campaign, US–Iran negotiations and Iranian domestic sections each said 'Nothing significant to report'. No change of land control in Iran.", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-15-2026", "status": "not_verified" }, { "ts": "2026-10-16T11:40:00Z", "side": "Other", "type": "other", "handle": "Iran International (relaying Qatar UN ambassador)", "summary": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported Qatar's UN ambassador Sheikha Alya Ahmed bin Saif Al Thani condemned Iranian attacks on Qatar and other countries and called for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened without conditions, while saying Qatar continues mediating between the US and Iran.", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610162797", "status": "official_statement" } ], "outlook": [ { "kind": "contradiction", "text": "Morning ~7:50am MT Oct 10 FULL-STACK: AAP: vessel owner NVTrans told AAP the NV Sunshine was not attacked, no engine-room fire occurred and all crew are safe — directly contradicting the IRGC Navy claim (Tasnim/Sepah News) that it struck the ship on the 'illegal' southern route.", "url": "https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/iran-strikes-gas-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz", "handle": "AAP (statement from NVTrans)", "ts": "2026-10-10T00:00:00Z" }, { "kind": "contradiction", "text": "Midday ~12:00pm MT Oct 12 FULL-STACK: Iran's ambassador to Britain Seyed Ali Mousavi denied Tehran's involvement after being summoned to the Foreign Office.", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2109686221563675104", "handle": "@IranIntl_En", "ts": "2026-10-12T16:42:45Z" }, { "kind": "contradiction", "text": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: ABC News live (12:25pm EDT): a US official said Iran lied about the cargo ship that sank Wednesday and that Iran attacked it, likely with a missile — directly contradicting the IRGC Navy statement (Mehr/Tasnim/Sepah News) that the container carrier sank after hitting a naval mine on an 'unauthorized' route. MPA Singapore says GFS Pride was struck by an unknown projectile. Marisks: no independent evidence of a mine (CNBC).", "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-trump-us-attack-iran-ahead/?id=137063637", "handle": "ABC News (Steve Beynon) — unnamed US official", "ts": "2026-10-14T16:25:00Z" }, { "kind": "contradiction", "text": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 15: The National (updated Oct 15): Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank after unidentified projectile strike; all 21 crew evacuated safely (Singapore MPA). IRGC claimed naval mine on 'unauthorised' route; maritime security firm Marisks found no independent evidence supporting a mine and described Iran's claims as consistent with a psychological operations campaign. Unverified social posts alleged cargo looting; National notes footage unverified / AI images circulated. Wrap of Oct 13–14 Pride incident with new Marisks assessment.", "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/15/fire-sinking-and-reported-scramble-for-cargo-what-we-know-about-ship-lost-in-strait-of-hormuz/", "handle": "The National (citing Marisks; Singapore MPA; IRGC)", "ts": "2026-10-15T09:03:00Z" }, { "kind": "open", "text": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: Mehr (IRGC Navy PR): a container carrier carrying more than 2,500 containers sank Wednesday morning in waters south of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine and catching fire; vessel allegedly using unauthorized/high-risk route; IRGC Navy warns local vessels/fishermen about floating containers. Also relayed by Iran International and Press TV X. Correlates in time/place with Reuters/MPA GFS Pride sinking but mechanism (mine vs projectile) and naming differ — treat as party claim, not confirmed identity match.", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248588/Container-carrier-sinks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-after-explosion", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Public Relations)", "ts": "2026-10-14T09:28:04Z" }, { "kind": "territory", "text": "Whether any of this week’s territorial claims (Section 4) appear in independent assessed-control reporting; this site’s EST territory layer showed no assessed change this week.", "url": null, "handle": null, "ts": null } ], "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202610105959", "handle": "Iran International liveblog (Oct 12, 20:06 GMT+1)", "n": 6 }, { "url": "https://maritime-executive.com/article/ukmto-reports-third-strike-in-a-day-on-a-tanker-in-the-mideast", "handle": "The Maritime Executive (also TradeWinds, Tasnim photo)", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610101543", "handle": "Iran International (relaying Bloomberg)", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610122524", "handle": "Iran International citing Iranian state media", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "handle": "Iran International (Trump remarks / Truth Social)", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610138563", "handle": "Iran International citing The Wall Street Journal (Oct 13, 2026)", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/iran-claims-mine-sank-container-ship-amid-fresh-hormuz-attacks%250a", "handle": "Seatrade Maritime (Gary Howard) citing Vanguard Tech", "n": 2 }, { "url": "https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/iran-strikes-gas-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz", "handle": "AAP (statement from NVTrans)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-trump-us-attack-iran-ahead/?id=137063637", "handle": "ABC News (Steve Beynon) — unnamed US official", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.aletihad.ae/news/uae/4697853/uae-national-guard-rescues-22-people-after-oil-tanker-catche", "handle": "Aletihad News Center (WAM)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248460/Over-50-combat-support-units-deployed-along-Iran-s-borders", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Army Ground Force cmdr. Ali Jahanshahi)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248469/Giant-oil-tanker-targeted-caught-fire-after-breaching-rules", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy public relations statement)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248541/Iran-Army-Navy-built-new-weapons-to-target-US-vulnerabilities", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Rear Adm. Bamani, Iran Army Navy)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248551/Iran-s-control-over-Hormuz-represents-enormous-natl-wealth", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248562/If-Iran-attacked-consequences-to-be-extended-beyond-region", "handle": "Mehr News Agency / Tasnim (Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi via RIA Novosti)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248563/Yet-another-oil-tanker-burns-in-flames-in-Strait-of-Hormuz", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248568/If-US-ships-approach-Hormuz-Strait-we-will-sink-them", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Cdr Ali Ozmaei)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248569/US-to-have-so-many-POWs-in-Iran-in-case-of-ground-invasion", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "handle": "Mehr News; Anadolu Agency; Reuters via Tasnim", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248588/Container-carrier-sinks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-after-explosion", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Public Relations)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248591/Iran-not-shy-away-from-dealing-with-violating-vessels", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (IRGC Navy Chief Ali Ozmaei)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "handle": "Mehr News; @PressTV; IRNA", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248602/Strait-of-Hormuz-closed-transit-must-be-coordinated", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari); Press TV; ISNA", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248608/Violating-oil-tanker-catches-fire-in-Sea-of-Oman", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations); @PressTV", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248625/Iran-Army-Navy-identifies-violating-oil-tanker-in-east-Hormuz", "handle": "Mehr News Agency (Iran Army Navy Public Relations)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://english.aawsat.com/node/5328967", "handle": "Asharq Al-Awsat (Reuters) quoting Donald Trump on Truth Social", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://english.aawsat.com/node/5329024", "handle": "Asharq Al-Awsat relaying The Wall Street Journal (Oct 13, 2026)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "handle": "Reuters via gCaptain; Seatrade Maritime (Vanguard Tech); Washington Post", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://gcaptain.com/container-ship-sinks-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectile-sources-say/", "handle": "Reuters via gCaptain; CNA/MPA Singapore; NAVAREA IX 373/26", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-iran-war-yemen-says-950-houthis-killed-iran-denies-raf-fairford-plot-irgc-warns-foreign-powers-off-strait-of-hormuz-1.500708295", "handle": "Gulf News liveblog (AP/AFP) quoting MI5 DG Ken McCallum; Iran International X", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://kuwaittimes.com/article/51496/kuwait/kuwait-condemns-iranian-attacks-at-un-warns-shipping-disruption-threatens-development/", "handle": "Kuwait Times / KUNA (Kuwait statement to UNGA Second Committee)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/12/u-k-royal-navy-destroyer-returns-home-from-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-multinational-mission-in-limbo", "handle": "USNI News (Dzirhan Mahadzir) citing Royal Navy / UK MoD release", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://news.usni.org/2026/10/13/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-oct-13-2026", "handle": "USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker (Oct 13, 2026)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/two-tankers-attacked-near-strait-of-hormuz-and-oman-two-indian-seafarers-missing/", "handle": "All India Radio (Akashvani) citing Sonowal on X and India MEA", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://omidradio.com/en/2026/10/10/wall-street-journal-pentagon-reviewing-plans-for-potential-strikes-on-iran/", "handle": "Omid Radio (relaying The Wall Street Journal)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://regulasshipping.com/blog/ukmto-logs-a-sohar-anchorage-uav-hit-after-warning-165-26/", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 165-26 + Update 001 (via Regulas Shipping summary); India MEA / Sonowal", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://thejewishedition.com/news/middle-east-levant/2026/10/12/iran-reportedly-launches-over-30-missiles-in-major-military-exercise/", "handle": "The Jewish Edition citing Channel 14 / Saberin News; Liveuamap (cite-only)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/container-ship-tanker-struck-by-unknown-projectiles-in-strait-of-hormuz-uk-maritime-agency/4087813", "handle": "Anadolu Agency (AA) citing UKMTO", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/iran-s-irgc-says-3rd-offending-supertanker-hit-in-strait-of-hormuz-in-2-days/4086287", "handle": "Anadolu Agency (also TASS) citing IRGC Navy public relations", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/exclusive-iran-ships-some-lpg-jet-fuel-despite-us-blockade-data-shows", "handle": "Reuters (via Al-Monitor); also Iran International", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-shifting-tactics-step-attacks-shipping-us-vote-officials-say", "handle": "Reuters via Al-Monitor (Hafezi/Saul/Stewart)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/12/iran-sets-crosshairs-on-us-uae-oil-shuttle-out-of-strait-of-hormuz", "handle": "Al Jazeera (Maziar Motamedi) citing Mohsen Rezaei / Iranian state media; Windward", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again", "handle": "Al Jazeera (Priyanka Shankar) citing UKMTO/Kpler/Reuters/Press TV", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "handle": "BBC Verify", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/vessels-singapore-registered-struck-strait-hormuz-6459176", "handle": "CNA citing Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-11-2026", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update, October 11, 2026 (criticalthreats.org)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-12-2026", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update, October 12, 2026 (criticalthreats.org)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-13-2026", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update (Oct 13, 2026)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update, October 14, 2026 (criticalthreats.org)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-15-2026", "handle": "CTP-ISW Iran Update (criticalthreats.org)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.forth.news/lists/centcom/CfuUiQPmfHxXfWGGkPzeZ", "handle": "US Central Command (CENTCOM) press release; also @CENTCOM via Middle East Eye", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-peace-donald-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-prices-midterms-october-15", "handle": "Fox News Digital live (relaying pro-IRGC Telegram post)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610104268", "handle": "Iran International", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610106673", "handle": "Iran International (citing Bessent / Newsmax)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610109658", "handle": "Iran International (citing ISIS)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610120644", "handle": "Iran International citing UK Prime Minister in parliament", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610126090", "handle": "Iran International (Maryam Sinaiee), Oct 12 23:59 GMT+1; also @IranIntl_En", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610126636", "handle": "Iran International (citing Safavi remarks)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610154035", "handle": "Iran International (relaying Reuters investigation)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610162797", "handle": "Iran International (relaying Qatar UN ambassador)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.irantimes.com/news/iran-says-us-response-to-its-proposal-to-reopen-hormuz-was-insufficient", "handle": "Reuters (via Iran Times reprint) citing Iranian state media", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-911224", "handle": "The Jerusalem Post (Ben Caspit, citing Maariv)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158715/Hormuz-ship-attacks-hit-record-as-Iran-broadens-campaign-against-commercial-shipping", "handle": "Lloyd's List", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/indian-crew-22-safe-after-drone-attack-panama-flagged-695.htm", "handle": "NewKerala / ANI (Indian Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal on X)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/10/13/778247/iran-navy-deploys-new-units-in-hormuz-region-warns-violator-vessels", "handle": "Press TV (Iran Army Navy statement)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/joint-statement-on-the-united-kingdoms-attribution-of-irans-involvement-in-attempted-terrorist-attack-at-raf-fairford/", "handle": "US State Department, Office of the Spokesman (Oct 12, 2026)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/10/12/3720700/another-tanker-catches-fire-in-strait-of-hormuz-after-hitting-sea-mine", "handle": "Tasnim (IRGC-affiliated) citing IRGC Navy public relations", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/10/12/3720885/security-won-t-prevail-in-strait-of-hormuz-as-long-as-us-war-continues-iranian-spokesman", "handle": "Tasnim; also Reuters via Al-Monitor", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/12/gargash-calls-for-stronger-gulf-security-and-collective-defence/", "handle": "The National (UAE) citing Anwar Gargash on X", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/10/15/fire-sinking-and-reported-scramble-for-cargo-what-we-know-about-ship-lost-in-strait-of-hormuz/", "handle": "The National (citing Marisks; Singapore MPA; IRGC)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-reportedly-pressed-trump-to-renew-iran-fighting-before-israeli-and-us-elections/", "handle": "Times of Israel (citing Channel 12 News)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261010-ukmto_advisory-161-26.pdf?rev=e28a93ccc8f54abe86ce5a8d5dd5cd1d", "handle": "UKMTO; Ambrey via monitor-the-situation.com", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261010-ukmto_warning_162-26.pdf?rev=ba230421f0a1444fa4f21f84c96d6640", "handle": "UKMTO", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261011-ukmto_warning_164-26.pdf?rev=438f8055b40046ae998e91015f731a24", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 164-26 (PDF)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261012-ukmto_warning_166.pdf?rev=d1c29f7d3a624340958b0acd7f7cb65a", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 166-26 (PDF); @UK_MTO post", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261012-ukmto_warning_167.pdf?rev=24e84c61917849d983067826cb0ead8c", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 167-26 (PDF)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261012-ukmto_warning_168-26.pdf?rev=df977f92d866474e8eddfd6e036ff515", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 168-26 (PDF)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261012-ukmto_warning_169-26.pdf", "handle": "UKMTO Warning 169-26 (PDF)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_170-26.pdf?rev=c6618d252aa94ec0bfe7cdb1eebf3f45", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 170-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_171-26.pdf?rev=854e34710b3f4dfebe3fe985a479a145", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 171-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_172-26.pdf", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 172-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_173-26.pdf", "handle": "UKMTO WARNING 173-26 (via @UK_MTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-104-jmic-advisory-note-11-october-1.pdf?rev=ff03f3af21364e44a4e9413136d44456", "handle": "JMIC Update 104 Advisory Note, 11 October (PDF via UKMTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-15-october.pdf?rev=ae23f6713bc24322b5f58190a6923b58", "handle": "JMIC Update 105 Advisory Note, 15 October (PDF via UKMTO / @UK_MTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://www.worldports.org/more-tankers-struck-as-irgc-expands-threat-against-non-compliant-vessels/", "handle": "World Ports Organization (Carlos Nieves)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110108416077123910", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110372911378829540", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110455930559086927", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110737854481465457", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110780675238289548", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110910388489658403", "handle": "@CENTCOM", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/GlobalDefenseAn/status/2108737245058637985", "handle": "@GlobalDefenseAn (Global Defense Analysis)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2108928984025038927", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (citing Kpler)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2108963216608887280", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Saudi GACA statement / Reuters)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2108966683792875649", "handle": "@IranIntl_En", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2109038761472582065", "handle": "@IranIntl_En", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2109674088587276586", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Trump Truth Social post)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2109686221563675104", "handle": "@IranIntl_En", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110157108125852073", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (citing @TankerTrackers)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110179625037131889", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (Trump rally remarks)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110480096691949650", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Iranian state media)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110818858944565479", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying CBS News)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110857835064246778", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Iranian state media)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110882907866968080", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Israeli TV, Israeli security officials)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110897291523412239", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying Newsmax interview)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "handle": "@IranIntl_En (relaying UKMTO)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2109753422685598119", "handle": "@MenchOsint", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2109804533396168785", "handle": "@MenchOsint", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/PressTV/status/2109710692076900770", "handle": "@PressTV", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/PressTV/status/2109755099191095470", "handle": "@PressTV", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/PressTV/status/2111050616654942519", "handle": "@PressTV (relaying Artesh spokesman Akraminia)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/RyanRozbiani/status/2110009442993373261", "handle": "@RyanRozbiani (X relay of IRGC Navy statement)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2108880499389198584", "handle": "@TankerTrackers (TankerTrackers.com)", "n": 1 }, { "url": "https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2109016489990746167", "handle": "@TankerTrackers", "n": 1 } ], "ledger": [ { "claim_id": "news-ukmto-1014-warning-172-26-inbound-container-projectile", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 50000.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_172-26.pdf", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 172-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 50,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an inbound Strait of Hormuz transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1640 UTC" }, { "claim_id": "news-ukmto-1014-warning-173-26-outbound-container-projectile", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 19000.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261014-ukmto_warning_173-26.pdf", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 14: UKMTO WARNING 173-26 (Attack, Source Verified, time-late): a 19,000 tonne container ship was struck by an unknown projectile whilst conducting an outbound SoH transit on 13 Oct 2026 at 1700 UTC" }, { "claim_id": "news-ukmto-1013-warning-170-26-container-ship-projectile", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_170-26.pdf?rev=c6618d252aa94ec0bfe7cdb1eebf3f45", "clause": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 170-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC)" }, { "claim_id": "news-ukmto-1013-warning-171-26-tanker-projectile", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261013-ukmto_warning_171-26.pdf?rev=854e34710b3f4dfebe3fe985a479a145", "clause": "Midday ~1:46pm MT Oct 13 LIGHT→FULL (UKMTO 170/171 new Hormuz attacks): UKMTO WARNING 171-26 (Attack, Source Verified): verified source reports a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 Oct 2026 (incident time TBC)" }, { "claim_id": "news-iranintl-1013-dhahran-aramco-hq-fire-saudi-energy-ministry", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:drones", "value": 5.0, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "clause": "Coalition says it intercepted 5 drones and 6 missiles targeting Riyadh, Dhahran and the south" }, { "claim_id": "news-iranintl-1013-dhahran-aramco-hq-fire-saudi-energy-ministry", "date": "2026-10-13", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:missiles", "value": 6.0, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610137695", "clause": "Coalition says it intercepted 5 drones and 6 missiles targeting Riyadh, Dhahran and the south" }, { "claim_id": "news-mehr-aa-1014-sirik-fishing-boat-unidentified-drone", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "clause": "LIGHT 1:46pm MT Oct 14: Mehr + Anadolu Agency + Reuters (via Tasnim): Hormozgan provincial authorities said an unidentified drone struck a fishing boat off Sirik" }, { "claim_id": "news-mehr-aa-1014-sirik-fishing-boat-unidentified-drone", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "casualty", "metricKey": "civ_wounded", "value": 3, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248584/Drone-hit-a-boat-off-southern-Iran-port-of-Sirik-3-injured", "clause": "three fishermen injured, taken ashore" }, { "claim_id": "news-aj-1014-iran-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-oil-flows", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 15.0, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "earlier event (before window)", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/14/iran-steps-up-hormuz-surveillance-attacks-soar-oil-flows-crash-again", "clause": "UKMTO recorded 15 attacks Oct 6–14 (11 in past four days)" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-gfs-pride-sinks-projectile-hormuz", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/container-ship-sinks-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectile-sources-say/", "clause": "second vessel sunk since Feb 28 war start per IMO data" }, { "claim_id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:civilian_buildings", "value": 1, "qual": "incident", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "clause": "Press TV (X): a police officer and a Basij commander were killed in two terrorist attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan" }, { "claim_id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 2, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "clause": "Press TV (X): a police officer and a Basij commander were killed in two terrorist attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan" }, { "claim_id": "news-mehr-1014-mehrestan-basij-commander-assassinated", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:civilian_buildings", "value": 1, "qual": "incident", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Iranian state / IRGC sources", "url": "https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248594/Basiji-woman-cmdr-martyred-in-southeast-Iran-by-terrorists", "clause": "IRNA headline: police officer killed in terrorist attack in southeastern Iran" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "casualty", "metricKey": "civ_killed", "value": 1, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "clause": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: Reuters (via gCaptain / Al-Monitor): Cape Dao sank close to the strait, weeks after being struck by a projectile on Sep 23 (one crew member killed then), per IMO data on Oct 14. Seatrade/Vanguard Tech: sinking followed an unsucc" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "clause": "Reuters/IMO: GFS Pride and Cape Dao are the 2nd and 3rd vessels sunk since the war began Feb 28. WaPo and Guardian also report the bulk carrier sank Wednesday" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:vehicles", "value": 2, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "clause": "CTP-ISW Oct 14 (citing WSJ): two Emirati cargo vessels sank in the strait on Oct 14." }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-gc-1014-cape-dao-sinks-after-sep23-strike", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/", "clause": "CTP-ISW Oct 14 (citing WSJ): two Emirati cargo vessels sank in the strait on Oct 14." }, { "claim_id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:civilian_buildings", "value": 1, "qual": "incident", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "clause": "EVENING FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 14: CTP-ISW Iran Update Oct 14: recent waves of Iranian attacks indicate Iran retains the ability to effectively target vessels in/near Hormuz, having either overcome earlier operational constraints (after US strikes on coastal rada" }, { "claim_id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 24.0, "qual": "at least", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "clause": "Iran struck at least 24 vessels Sep 28–Oct 11" }, { "claim_id": "news-ctp-1014-iran-update-iran-retains-ability-target-hormuz", "date": "2026-10-14", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:vehicles", "value": 2, "qual": "", "target": "Iran", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Independent analysts (ISW/CTP etc.)", "url": "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-14-2026", "clause": "Iranian attacks sank two Emirati cargo vessels Oct 14 (WSJ)" }, { "claim_id": "news-reuters-ii-1015-iran-gulf-water-power-strikes-deliberate", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:energy", "value": 1, "qual": "incident", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Media report: Iran International", "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610154035", "clause": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International summarised a Reuters investigation finding that Iran and its allies hit water plants, airports, refineries and a nuclear power station across the Persian Gulf with precision that rules out the official 'fallin" }, { "claim_id": "news-jmic-105-1015-mine-claim-unsubstantiated-hormuz-severe", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 8, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-105-jmic-advisory-note-15-october.pdf?rev=ae23f6713bc24322b5f58190a6923b58", "clause": "eight unknown-projectile attacks (UKMTO 166–173-26) on Oct 11 and Oct 13" }, { "claim_id": "x-2110780675238289548-centcom-three-false-iranian-claims-hormuz-control-pride", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "casualty", "metricKey": "killed", "value": 3, "qual": "", "target": "USA", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "US military / CENTCOM / US officials", "url": "https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2110780675238289548", "clause": "CENTCOM says three US service members were killed in July." }, { "claim_id": "news-lloyds-1015-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-monthly-high", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "single (no number stated)", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158715/Hormuz-ship-attacks-hit-record-as-Iran-broadens-campaign-against-commercial-shipping", "clause": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Lloyd's List reported that Iran's escalating campaign against commercial shipping has pushed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz to a record monthly high, with a widening range of vessels targeted." }, { "claim_id": "x-2110818858944565479-iranintl-cbs-moab-plans-iran-sites", "date": "2026-10-15", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:civilian_buildings", "value": 1, "qual": "incident", "target": "Other", "civilian": true, "scope": "event", "claimant": "US government (White House / State / Treasury)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2110818858944565479", "clause": "Evening FULL ~7:46pm MT Oct 15: Iran International relayed a CBS News report, citing sources familiar with the matter, that the White House and Pentagon have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb (GBU-43/B) to hit military sites in Iran if or" }, { "claim_id": "news-bbc-verify-1016-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-weekly-high", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 12.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO incident reports said ship-attack reports near Hormuz hit a record weekly high (12 vessels between 5 and 11 October), with four further reported attacks so far this week, and Kpler showing ~12.6 mill" }, { "claim_id": "news-bbc-verify-1016-hormuz-ship-attacks-record-weekly-high", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 4, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmde8dpg8g0no", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO incident reports said ship-attack reports near Hormuz hit a record weekly high (12 vessels between 5 and 11 October), with four further reported attacks so far this week, and Kpler showing ~12.6 mill" }, { "claim_id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 12.0, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported UKMTO said Friday that 12 attacks on vessels were reported over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with one vessel lost" }, { "claim_id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "equipment", "metricKey": "equip:ships", "value": 1, "qual": "", "target": "Other", "civilian": false, "scope": "aggregate", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "clause": "Morning FULL ~7:46am MT Oct 16: Iran International reported UKMTO said Friday that 12 attacks on vessels were reported over the past week in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with one vessel lost" }, { "claim_id": "x-2111080292391788995-iranintl-ukmto-12-attacks-past-week-one-vessel-lost", "date": "2026-10-16", "kind": "munition", "metricKey": "mun:ground_attacks", "value": 10, "qual": "", "target": "Unclear", "civilian": false, "scope": "event", "claimant": "Maritime monitors / industry (UKMTO, JMIC, IMO, trackers)", "url": "https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2111080292391788995", "clause": "ten of the attacks were in the Strait of Hormuz." } ], "method": "Figures are extracted automatically from the English summaries of this map’s claim records (claims.json) by fixed text rules; nothing is estimated or imputed. Each figure is credited to the party the claim cites (the claimant) and assigned to the side that the claim says suffered the loss. Per-event figures are de-duplicated: repeat reports of the same event (same UTC day, same ~10 km area, same claimant) count once, and when they disagree the range runs from the lowest to the highest figure reported. Rolling official tallies (e.g. daily General Staff / MoD loss counts) are kept in a separate table and are never added to per-event sums. Multi-day, nationwide, monthly or cumulative figures are listed separately and not summed. Totals from different claimants are never added together. Separate incidents in the same area on the same day may merge into one range, so per-event totals can undercount; rule-based extraction can also misread text — every figure links to its source in the ledger so it can be checked. Synthesis / cross-source ‘contradiction’ records are excluded from all figures to avoid double counting. Losses are grouped by the side that suffered them, parsed from the claim text and claimant (never from the map’s side tag); figures whose victim cannot be determined are shown under ‘Side unclear’. Official day tallies are bucketed by UTC date, so an interim evening update and the next-morning full-day figure can overlap — treat tally sums as upper bounds.", "disclaimers": [ { "title": "INFO / SA only", "text": "This page exists only to help people see what open sources claim — nothing else. It is an informational and situational-awareness (SA) aid. It is not a product for operations, targeting, advice, or decision-making under threat." }, { "title": "Unverified claims only", "text": "Every item, figure and total on this page is an UNVERIFIED / CLAIMED statement taken from the cited public sources. A label such as “official statement” means a public official utterance exists — citation ≠ confirmation." }, { "title": "Not an official military or intelligence product", "text": "The SITREP layout is a presentation style only. This is not official intelligence, not a military report, and not targeting, fire-control, navigation or operational guidance. Not affiliated with, funded by, or directed by any government, military, or intelligence service." }, { "title": "Casualty & damage figures are claims by the named parties", "text": "Killed / wounded / captured counts and equipment or damage figures are claims by the party named in each row. They may be propaganda, incomplete, revised, or inaccurate. Totals are arithmetic sums of one claimant’s own claims (“CLAIMED TOTAL, UNVERIFIED”) — never a confirmed or ‘true’ count, and never summed across claimants." }, { "title": "No endorsement", "text": "Claims from all sides (and third parties) are listed under the same rules. Listing a claim does not endorse it, nor the legality, legitimacy, or justification of any military action by any party." }, { "title": "Fair use & links", "text": "Short quoted or paraphrased source text is included for commentary and situational awareness with links to the original publishers, who retain all rights. Outbound links lead to third-party sites we do not control." }, { "title": "Corrections & takedown", "text": "Errors usually originate upstream in reporting — check the linked source. As on the map’s Disclaimer and About pages, this project publishes no dedicated corrections email; re-read the terms via the map footer (Disclaimer / Terms) or the About page. Rights-holders and readers can request corrections or removal through the same About-page route; corrected items are replaced in the next weekly edition." }, { "title": "No warranty; limitation of liability; not legal advice", "text": "Provided “AS IS” and “AS AVAILABLE,” without warranty of accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or fitness for any purpose. To the maximum extent permitted by law, operators and contributors are not liable for any damages arising from use of this page. Use at your own risk. Nothing here is legal advice and no attorney–client relationship is created. If you are in a conflict zone, contact official authorities, the Red Cross / ICRC, or UNHCR — not this site." } ] }